You are right. It comes down to luck most of the time.
Even Warren Buffett got it so wrong when he encouraged people to buy in Ocober 2008. The S&P 500 fell another 40% since before recovering.
Anyone with a weak heart would not have survived.
Once they bailed out Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac, AIA and nationalized the too-big-to-fail banks and the resolution to GM/Chryler bankuptcy were in sight, I took the plunge realising the worst may have been over.
I also predicted (with luck) that after Obama had sworn and signed the stimulus bill, the market would sell on the fact. And it did. That was what I term the darkest hour (just before dawn).
