Ok this is exactly how it’s going to play out. Copper now hovering just above $US2.00 lb. global Copper producers shipping millions tonnes Cu concentrates to China. China stockpiling as smelters closed and no Cu products being produced because 90% manufacturing co’s still closed. Forget the China propaganda machine. When start up does begin China will have so much stockpile for 6/12 months and will screw producers on price to below cost. Copper producers will close, but China is going to start up slowly will take years for the machine to get back to serious manufacturing, it may never reach the heights of the revolution we have seen. You will see Japan come back into smelting as it used to be before China reduced TC/TC to oust Japan as prime Cu smelters and gradually fk the benchmark TC/RC price putting Japan out of the game. Current levels are: supply outstripping demand by 20,000%. This is conservative. When China was firing Cu was $US4.45 lb, today hovering a few cents over $US2.00. In 2002 before the China smelter and manufacture revolution Copper was $US0.72c a lb. China is now in worse position economically than it was in 2002 so short medium term for Copper is around $US0. 78c.lb Same as 2002. Fundamentals say yes. You may laugh but the fundamentals are the same as 2002, in fact worse in China. Now China has enough Cu cons to last six months/year or more due to massive stockpiles of cons and zero to no demand for Cu products, Cu Cables, alloying and other Cu products. They will screw the life out of Cu producers. Two months ago I called Qantas at $2.50 and banks to fall by 50%. Everyone laughed, now no laughing. Copper by end March to mid April $1.40-$1.60lb. June 2020 $US0.90c. I’m no genius, just been there seen it all before. Can’t argue with fundamentals and history, no matter how hard you try. Oh yeah and Qantas tapping on $A.90c in June. This is my opinion I am not a broker and don’t give advice but I give you the view I see. Do your own due diligence. Maybe a move to Gold maybe a smart move.
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Ok this is exactly how it’s going to play out. Copper now...
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