Hi WN
You are a breath of fresh air after some of the crap we've waded through - or ignored - in the past weeks.
Disclaimer: I have absolutely no knowledge of geology, but I can read, I observe body language, and I keep my ear to the ground. Some examples:
> The Gulf of Mexico and Western Africa were joined in the geological age when oil deposits were laid - fact. It stood to reason, then, there was a fair chance the division of that land mass created two mega oilfields. One was discovered and exploited decades ago; the other has remained elusive.
> Underneath the FAN discovery are world-class source rocks generating prodigious quantities of oil - fact.
> FAN contained a complex 500-metre oil column with no OWC - fact.
> FAR's theory that this oil migrated up on to the shelf was proven with the SNE discovery- fact.
> From day one, SNE was said to be a straight-forward container of oil - it was only ever a question of its size and connectivity.
> As you observe, every well has surprised massively to the upside. There is as yet no limit in sight to the field's spread. FAR has so far booked a 2C of 561m barrels with two 100m oil columns still to be accounted for. Logic suggests the field will easily exceed a billion barrels recoverable well before its aereal extent is determined.
> FAR's excitement is palpable. Chairman Nic is visibly tense and highly defensive at the merest suggestion that his Board will fail to extract good value from the discovery. Cath is like a (very well behaved) kid in a lolly shop. She knows this is fantasy land made real and does not try to hide her enthusiasm for what's found and what's to come.
> Even Ya is wondering out loud just how big this is. He is hardly prone to hyperbole is the old Ya.
> A steely eyed Chairman told last year's AGM FAR would NOT sell down this asset and should the chance arise, would acquire more (a claim already made good with Djiferre).
> COP says all its deepwater exploration assets are for sale and yet is feverishly trying to move Senegal into its commercial division to insulate it from any sale process.
> Malcy - no fool - has declared SNE commercial and FAR a no-brainer way to play it. As I recall, he said his earlier estimate of FAR already being worth 30 cents was "embarrassingly" underdone.
> FAR keeps raising capital in the worst oil market in decades. Some here have derided management for the price at which this was achieved, but that conveniently ignores the fact that FAR is a tiny and inconsequential junior explorer with zero income and the massive expenses associated with deep water drilling. Oh, and that the price of the commodity it is looking for is - or at least was - at rock bottom. The Chairman was right to defend his troops from unjustified criticism.
> Finally - and I must be circumspect - some very well qualified people (including, it seems, you, WN) have looked at these seismics and charts and declared this discovery is much, much bigger than has thus far been proven.
WN, I share your view: This is a mega oilfield, an increasingly rare, and ultimately increasingly valuable, resource that will generate tens and tens of billions of dollars in revenues for decades to come. In short, I believe it will come to be recognised that little old FAR has discovered the Holy Grail for oil explorers, GOM's twin sister.
That's an easy claim to make because it cannot be proved or disproved for years. So call me deluded, or ignorant, or a ramper, but I have never seen so many ducks so well aligned as they are in Senegal. I declared many months ago my satisfaction that we had then entered territory in which our capital investment was safe. With what's already 'bankable' to FAR (80-odd million barrels), what's drilled but as yet undeclared (another 50?), and what lies beyond SNE's currently known extremeties, it is now only a question of how much profit we make and how and when that is realised.
So why are we eight cents and probably headed back into the sevens if the news flow dries up? God knows. You tell me.
OOO
Expand
(20min delay)