Why do we do this to ourselves?, page-2

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Lumpy Pom

307 Posts.

25/07/17

18:32

Post #: 26072055
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Originally posted by Parsifal ↑

Sorry new thread. Same reason as always

I've been following the thread on the 4c. I had a horrible sense of déjà Vue. We've been down this track before - whipping ourselves into a frenzy of anticipation. And you know what a good whipping does. It's not the frenzy period that lasts - it's the welts and sores afterwards, and for some the feeling of regret.

So far I haven't noticed that eager anticipation has done us much good. Far from it - as our over inflated expectations bring the inevitable disappointment when reality sets in.

I have no idea what we might really get in the report and I will be delighted to be pleasantly surprised - but I'm not expecting lots - certainly not the higher end predictions - and not what Taurean previously charted

I know there have been reports about $invoicing per month but I'm going to temporarily discount that sort of comment until I can be confident that what I am reading in updates is from Dirk. I've reread most of the updates we have had from the start and comparatively few of them have been accurately predictive.

I do agree with Pinto as far as Dirk's "warning" in Sydney. I thought I heard him imply that they had cut out customers that were stringing us along or who couldn't be converted into profitable customers. I'm sure they managed that as well as you can - it's not that hard because when it comes down to it most businesses understand that you can't have a relationship when it is one sided.

The result of that would logically be that we would have had to make up for those customers before we had any growth - but we would be making more money on each customer. So even if it is not much more than the same $ in it will mean fewer $ out

I think we all have to get our heads around this new approach before we can possibly start trying to predict.

We also don't really understand the proportion of Alexicool sales vs fire retardant alone. Nor do we have any real idea of the sector spread. I'm not counting on a licence deal either. I'd regard that as icing on the cake and a one off not as our bread and butter

Back to my original statement. So why do we get ourselves worked up in anticipation? Any guess work is based on the world as it was. I think I'm just going to wait and see.

And if it is less than any of the figures mentioned I'm not going to assume the world has ended. Instead I'm going with the thought that the world has just got going.

Parsifal

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I completely agree, the HC expectations for forthcoming 4c's always seems to be set at crazy high levels that can't ( and aren't ) met. We then seem surprised at a sell off!

Lumpy

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Why do we do this to ourselves?, page-2

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Why do we do this to ourselves?, page-2

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