why do we have a sudden drop?, page-40

salty,

with regard to valuations, I know that you know ... but I need to remember .... "costs" and "values" arent necessarily related ....

Plant/refinery costed 100mil (I think more than that btw) ? unfortunately it doesn't imply it's worth it. If it runs at a loss, then it's a negative value. Just to make an example, LDK built a $3,5bil poly plant in China years ago .... it's valued zero today, given poly worldwide overcapacity. The poly plant construction has brought LDK to death. I am not saying here that GXY plant is worth zero. Not at all. I simply can't tell you how much it is worth. But can tell that it has a value only for chinese. The plant is in China, and that's a liability in itself. It's not a liquid market or - let me restate that - it is not as liquid as any other developed market (Australia, Europe or US).

Mount Cattlin is apparently worthless. By GYX own admission. At least up until lithium prices soars.

SdV is a black hole. Based on koreans decision, though, we may think it has little or no value nowdays. Otherwise they would have cut a fair restructured deal. Again, I believe as a consequence of current lithium prices.

The whole picture will certainly change in case Lit prices go up again. At least 20%. But til then, I do not see any chance for management to raise cash thru assets sale. The only sellable asset is the plant. But if they sell it, what would be left in ? A portion of debt for sure, with no cashflow though. Therefore, that's not a sellable asset.

I see no future but share issuing. Real question is though would they succeed ? I think they would not. Unless they resign along with it and new investors take the lead. I am afraid though that the only investors who could walk in are from China. And that's not a promising future.

To make a long story short, I would sell now. At a loss, I know, but it's still something. I don't expect Lit prices to go up in next 12-18 months. At least based on OECD worlwide forecasts, just released and reviewed on the downside.

They may be wrong, I may be wrong. It is just an opinion. I used to own GXY shares and sold'em all out at a big loss. But sometime it's better to book a loss than to potentially lose everything.