why do you panic buying AGL, here is my point, page-3

If we are not at it, we are near it.

I'd say $11 is rock bottom (and probably slightly under).

The chart shows $11.75 as the absolute resistance point it keeps bouncing off, but the current trend on last few months has been to set new lows although most of the bad news has been priced in, and it is still intending on paying dividends.

Now, where I am gobsmacked, is you have your beaten down travel stocks like AIZ, QAN, WEB and FLT. They aren't setting new lows, and have set even poorer expectations (where they have commented at all) than AGL has, so I think the market is getting this wrong. I would absolutely look at beaten down energy companies over the travel sector at the moment. They will recover faster because they arent burning through money to sustain a currently uneconomical business model.

Web at least is a lower cash burn operative than the others, but compare to FLT who traded at its low at closer to $9.00 and AIZ who was as low as $1.20 recently, they are all 30% higher than that at the moment, and on the back of vaccine news even though these guys are barely flying if they are flying at all. Their cash burn is horrendous, and the outlook on AIZ was a 800 day plan to cut costs and survive the pandemic before giving a return to profit indication and that was as far back as June when the outlook was a bit more uncertain. That looks to have been a fairly accurate timeline, and yet it may elongate further.

When you compare those things, AGL as low as it currently is, is nonsense, and I dont know what else to say about it.