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The US has never sold gold since 1971. It may have leased gold since then but this not certain. It had to swap gold for $US until Nixon ended convertibility in in 1971 after De Gaulle kept swapping France's $US holdings.
Under the Washington Agreement European Central Banks have been selling around 500 tones per annum for the last nine years. This has kept the market reasonably in balance as investment demand has been low.
Gold is a natural hedge to the $US in Central Bank reserves and in current circumstances there could be reluctance to reduce this hedge. However there is any amount of "paper gold" on Comex etc. and this can be used to have some control over pricing.
A difficulty arises if there is continuing demand for gold coins + bars as these should be sold at the "paper gold" price. If this demand cannot be met a premium will arise for gold metal. This premium indicates a discontinuity in the "paper" vs gold metal pricing model and suggests an upside move unless more supply can enter the market.
One must be careful this premium is not caused by a lack of coins + bars caused by fabrication limits but when combined with the upside jump in gold lease rates is more likely to be a limit on the availability of gold metal itself.
