I suspect cost outs are lower than the market was hoping for -...

I suspect cost outs are lower than the market was hoping for - but could sensibly be conservative. One analyst was mentioning $US400m cost outs or something very big (today mentioned $130m AUD) - but I don't have the report - only a summary - so can't tell what their basis was for that.

Also the actuarial net cost of reinsurance (and related factors) is a $75m headwind, that has to be recouped. If I understand it correctly, (please correct me if I am wrong,) they have dialed up the cat risk insurance, but dialed down the reinsurance of other non cat categories. To me that seems smart, as there will be a bit more a of a mean reversion in the non cat categories - that an insurance company should be master of, and the existential stuff is less of a problem now. However the markets are probably focusing on the headwind, and not the risk adjustments for now.

Another underlying market headwind is that interest rates might be plateauing, when not long ago they were expected to rise a bit more. So there is probably a bit of a bearish sentiment to the sector currently.