why fertiliserprices are decoupling from grain, page-7

Will be very interesting how 2009 plays out, as credit is a price follower not leader the crash in grain and fertalizer prices is only going to exacerbate the volatility next year. As soil nutrient levels are "mined" due to credit sqeeze - resulting in less than full yields the fundamental drivers of population and changing diets in Asia are going to play catchup big time when it turns.

Low impurity RP is still a finite resource that the market will price with or without credit eventually. Credit is a temporary restricter - the fundamentals will drive the price - this lag however can't be good for the poorer countries or farmers in the long run.

Price discovery of food/fertalizer in a volatile environment will only result in higher long term prices. If Governments have to intervene to keep food production up it will be Farmers that could suffer rather than RP producers. Hopefully reason will prevail and a smoother repricing of fertalizer occurs - Mak needs RP price up a bit now rather than later to reduce dilution but I agree with not locking in offtakes at the RP price low. Will be big money earned in 2011 if we get this mined built IMO.