why gbi will deliver 10x returns over 12 mths, page-2

For new readers of the GBI thread who are not familiar with the work of Redfaces, I encourage you to go back and look at my work on HC.

While I have had my share of slightly jocular and lighthearted posts, I think that you will find that my track record when I have a big call is pretty strong. For example:

- At the time of the TTS float I lodged on HC an article that I had written for Crikey painting a compelling picture of how the retail investors in TTS were being duped into buying a grossly overpriced float, whose price relied on the (highly uncertain) notion that the Victorian gaming licence would be renewed. History will show that all my observations were precient.

- I followed spivvy heartcare business IM Medical (IMI - good product, dreadful management & poor commercial strategy) for some years and when it was the subject of a huge pump & dump effort I was one of the strongest voices on the forum calling it as a dog.

- In January 2008 I was the first voice on HC to promote to AFG investors the notion that the risk/return tradeoff was a lot stronger if they switched out of AFG and into the subordinarted notes AFGHA. I did not call AFGHA as a buy - simply identified that it was the better exposure to Allco. While both securities have subsequently declined in value, you would have been at least 5x better off today if you took my advice.

The only major call that I recall getting wrong was when I called CIX as a buy a couple of years back. This stock continues to trade at about the levels that it was at that time. I also was too enthusiastic about GBI at the time of the IPO - I did not properly understand the way in which the register structure would dictate the fate of the stock. I now have a much better handle on the register, and believe that NOW is the time to enter.