{Perhaps} most important is Consumer Spending (over 2/3 of US GDP), and that was clobbered in revised numbers released last night, posted by me last night. This will lead to a halving of Q1 GDP.
The remaining elements, Investment, and Trade Balance : (Export - Import) are for Shiite.
Companies have declining Profits (also Posted by me here, for Q4/2015 (Final Revision), and what profits they do have all go into stock buybacks, which as I've said before, have single-handedly pushed equities up, insofar as QE has ended (for now). I gave the reasons for this before, and so won't repeat, but it's a sign of weakness, moral weakness and lack of ideas in which to invest and create real jobs and econ growth. Rising company stock prices also boost Execs bonuses........ surely a co-incidence;)
(The final element, Govt expenditure seems always to rise). This is Econ 101 GDP=C+I+G+(X-M)
Thing is, Fed has done everything to stimulate the Consumer with super cheap money. They also have super low gas prices at pump, unlike Oz (where we seem always to get ....over-taxed...being polite here...), conceptually equivalent to a big tax cut (< $2/gallon in most States)...Nothing has helped.
GDP still v. low, way, way below historic trend. Don't believe the BLS Unemployment numbers (as in Oz, with ABS numbers). Dut do dig deep when they are released...the truth is hidden there.
Draw own conclusions as to the above.
As you suggest in your last phrase, Denial is not a river in Africa.
