It must be time for a new thread by now. This in response to Tetlom and those that believe all is well in the economy on any thread in Hot Copper.
I came across this in my research on Steve Keen and his mentor Economist Hyman Minsky. I have just selected a couple of points to start the discussion before I make my own conclusion at the end:
"The Queen of England famously asked her economic advisors why none of them had seen “it” (the global financial crisis) coming."
and "Even if the early postwar “Keynesian” economics had little to do with J.M. Keynes at least it had some connection to the world in which we actually live. What passed for macroeconomics on the precipice of the global collapse had nothing to do with reality—it is as relevant to our economy as flat earth theory is to natural science—warranting only a small footnote in the history of thought. In short, expecting the Queen’s economists to foresee the crisis would be like putting flat earthers in charge of navigation for NASA and expecting them to accurately predict points of reentry and landing of the space shuttle."
and... "And while he died in 1996, many of his followers were analyzing the consumer-led boom, based on debt, and arguing that a colossal collapse was coming. Yes, it is true, our projections were continually shown to be overly pessimistic; the unsustainable debt boom was sustained longer than most of us thought. But the important point is that the transformation of the economy and the unfolding of the crash were consistent with Minsky’s analysis."
and... "In my view, what passes for conventional economic theory is wrong and dangerous. Referring to the work of the best known economists over the past thirty years, Lord Robert Skidelsky (Keynes’s biographer) argues “Rarely in history can such powerful minds have devoted themselves to such strange ideas.” There was, however, one economist who got it right and it makes sense to now take stock of his ideas—rather than turning to the Larry Summers, the Bob Rubins, the Greg Mankiws, the Marty Feldsteins, the Ben Bernankes and the John Taylors of the world, who always had it wrong."
finally... "And, boy-oh-boy have we got a Big Bank and a Big Government! Together, the Benny and Timmy tag team have spent, lent, or guaranteed nearly $25 trillion in the name of Uncle Sam. And that still is not enough. “It” is still happening."
Comment: Every aspect of my analysis highlights that "it" is still happening. I cover the debt crisis as the core of my top down analysis and have recently tried to discover how economists could be so wrong.
The proof they are hopelessly lost is on the score card in case you have not been watching and analyzing this aspect of the world we live in (fair enough if not as this is boring to most people I am not knocking anybody just pointing out a qualification for my statement).
My work shows that gold is not in a bubble and that gold stocks are now cheaper than in 2008 at the bottom in terms of price: profitability. The upside must come as 'it' continues to unfold - 'it' can and has been quantified by some analysts including myself.
I have tried to argue with diehards who fail to see why their KPI's are flawed to no avail. I was happy to look at the economists methodology more closely however they seem stuck on outdated methods that are failing just so they can pretend they are still 'right'. Failure to look is a trap. I was happy to look at the other side of the coin and keep doing so to examine my own theories and models.
It seems the game HAS changed and that DOES make this time different. But this time has happened before in different forms. "IT" is still unfolding and this is why gold has a long way to run IMO. The mis-valuation of the gold stocks at this time has also been quantified in my work - there is a major distortion which must resolve in due course.
