GTP great southern limited

why gtp is only under 20c

  1. zwu
    2,454 Posts.
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    GTP last year's revenue was $424m, which makes a pre-tax loss of $99m.

    What if GTP get ~$300m from asset sale this year? I think the result would still be the same - negative. I have no doubt GTP would keep its negative earnings for the rest of its life.

    The problem is GTP has a very high fixed (if not growing) expenditure on company running cost mainly for maintaining the existing MIS projects (including debt interest). I estimate from last year's data this "fixed" cost is well over $200m pa. So at end of the day, even if GTP had sold the asset for $300m, little debt would be reduced and GTP would soon have to find another $200m+ for the next year from nowhere.

    This $200m+ p.a. GTP liability is mainly for maintaining the exiting MIS projects, which last up 10 or even 20+ years, and this liability has always been hidden from its balance sheet. If we just include this liability for 4 year ($200m * 4 =$800m+) in the balance sheet, then GTP's net asset will simply turn to negative.

    This is why the market never cares whether GTP was worth $1.80/s or $1.18/s as claimed by itself. This is also why GTP had to say its "continuation is a going concern", and why its price is now only under 20c - just like the price of an option for its short-term survival.
 
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