Why has the share dropped., page-100

@donnyk01

Here’s a (non-exhaustive) list of items I will want to check, in the half-year reports:

1) PCA ratio: I’d like it to stay above 1.40; anything lower would start making me nervous.

2) Reval of investment property and property-linked securities: I would expect a negative reval of the direct property investments between -5% and -10%; inferring a reval for stuff like RMBS/CMBS will involve some guesswork (as the corresponding Investment Experience won’t be provided separately, and there will be new business as well), but I would not want to see those securities depreciate (in % terms) by much more than the average of the fixed income portfolio.

3) Fixed Income reval: I would want to see the overall Fixed Income Investment Experience broadly in line with the corresponding (and offsetting) liability experience in the annuity book; underperformance of the asset side would be a concern.

4) Equity reval: I would not want to see the “Equity and Alternatives” component of the Life portfolio significantly underperform a basket of 50% ASX200 + 50% S&P500 (currency-unhedged) over the corresponding period.

5) Normalised NPBT: I will expect previous guidance to be achieved for the half year and confirmed for the full year.

6) Total Life Sales: I will want to see at least a small increase in Annuity Sales, and an increase in long-term annuities.

7) Life COE Margin: I would expect an improvement vs pcp, given the spike in risk premiums.

8) Funds Management: I’d be content seeing positive Net Flows, everything else would be a plus.

Let me know if there is anything unclear.