Remember with your property assumption that we have already / are selling 2 properties this year. They stated in the investor pres Q&A that the sales were progressing faster than expected.
So end result is lower capital intensity & lower downside risk due to reduced property % weighting.
Great point. I forgot that the June 2018 PCA ratio was calculated with Property at 21% of the Investment Portfolio (not at 17%, as it currently is). So, in the (likely) event of a Property portfolio deval, there will still be a hit to Investment Experience, but the PCA ratio may not deteriorate at all as a net result.
A small 'deterioration' is virtually certain, as we sell more annuities our PCA ratio falls (presuming we don't raise or make extra capital) & we are most definitely selling more annuities.
Agree. At the current run rate of Life book growth, the PCA ratio goes down by ~0.02 per semester (i.e. from 1.53 to 1.51) all else being equal. But then profits, too, grow accordingly, so nothing alarming there.
Cheers
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