Why has the share dropped., page-97

Thanks for digging this out. I suspect that there are a number of issues weighing on the CGF share price at present:

1. downturn in equity markets generally

2. real estate related risk both directly or through RMBS/CMBS

3. interest rate risk – duration of the whole portfolio is quite short at 3.4 years (obviously with a range of maturities) which lessens the risks associated with increases in interest rates but increases the risks of declines in interest rates. Confusingly, they are probably exposed to both at the moment and would, over the longer term. benefit from higher interest rates rather than lower ones

4. FX risk - while (I think?) most of the portfolio is is denominated in AUD, they still have some non-AUD exposure

5. regulatory risk - who knows what the political types will do to screw things up next

There are a lot of moving parts which makes valuation difficult. However, the bigger picture is that CGF is still the leader in a market which has favourable demographic tailwinds and has a demonstrated track record of increasing earnings and dividends (slightly marred by a badly mismanaged placement). There is also the forecasts/targets included in the most recent results announcement/analyst briefing for which there has been no subsequent update.