Thanks for the analysis, Blythefan. You make a good case why...

Thanks for the analysis, Blythefan. You make a good case why no-one is going to make an offer for the whole show. The Finreview article referred to by Mb reports Mr Sage as saying he is only interested in some of the assets, not including Lady Annie.

That leaves three scenarios.

1. Lady Annie is sold for enough to cover liabilities. Receivership and admin can then end and company resumes trading. Probably best outcome for shareholders who can then get on with their lives, but depends on Lady Annie generating a good price on its own.

2. Someone proposes a restructuring with Lady Annie sold separaately. Depends upon the attractiveness of the remaining assets, and any legal/tax obligations that would affect the calculations of the restructurer. Typically, existing shareholders do poorly out of such deals, but unsecured creditors find them attractive because they get paid relatively quickly.

3.Receivership turns into administration/liquidation with all assets sold and anything left over eventually paid to shareholders. Could take years.

It all turns on the prices paid. I think Blythefan is suggesting maybe $200m for Lady Annie and up to $100m for the rest. I suspect this may be high in the current distressed market (and I can't get close to $60m for the Platmin stake base upon current Canadian share price).

But I also think that the liabilities are lower than his figures indicate eg a sizeable chunk of the liabilities in the 2008 Annual report relate to the copper hedges which subsequently turned into an asset, and have been partly sold off to bring the secured debt down to the $70m purchased by Mr Sage.

So overall I think the break-even point where assets exceed liabilities may be around $150m ($80m for Mr Sage and perhaps $70m for the rest). But whatever our differences over the possible nos I think we are in fundamental agreement that there are substantial assets here that properly handled should lead to a return to shareholders.

My fear is that a corporate restructuring proposal will see that value accrue to the restructurer rather than the existing shareholders.

ubhopeful