Hi Marker2
You might want to put some analysis on the table to support your early morning propositions.
Blythefan has been trying to put some nos around the assets and liabilities. I found his approach to valuing lady Annie helpful, even if I think it gives a price higher than the likely outcome.
I also think he might discount the the hedges before he makes his adjustments to the liabilities, because the $54m liability for derivatives in the 2008 accounts was (yet another) artefact of accrual accounting. On the other side of the ledger I think he overvalues the Platmin stake because according to www.platmin.com/im/shareholders.asp CUO now only owns about 5% - following the restructuring led by Mr Gilbertson.
There is also the issue of the Minsec liablilities, although the principal one - a $50m debt to Macquarie - was probably covered by the partial sale of the hedge book by the first receiver.
Whatever, we both think there were substantial assets when CUO was put into administration. You can form your own view on why this happened. I think they probably panicked when the refinacing deal fell over, and perhaps a reasonable panic for Directors whose personal assets are on the line. A recent Business Spectator article (can't find unfortunately) suggested this might become more common given the onerous legal responsibilities now placed on Directors.
So while administration/receivership is usually bad news for shareholders it is worth doing the nos to see what the values. In this case I still see some possibility for a return for shareholders if the assets are handled properly. I note that OZL went close to administration in not dissimilar circumstances.
All of which means we shouldn't give up yet, and should give our full support to mb (and heed her sage advice about keeping things civil around here).
Incidentally does anyone have a handle on who the major shareholders are now, as some 20% of the shares appear to have changed hands in the last two days alone?
ubhopeful
CUO
copperco limited
