TAH (ASX) Why I’m shorting TAH

Originally posted by hoppy27: ↑

Hi All,

Would like to share some points as to why I’ve decided to short TAH and open up for discussion. As someone who has been working in the corporate online bookmaker space for ~10 years I feel I’m relatively qualified to comment on a few of these areas that seem to be going unnoticed by the general public. Whilst the lotto side of the business is sensational, I think the wagering part has been dramatically declining for some time now and doesn’t look like it will be able to resurrect itself. The impact of COVID19 to their wagering business is being underrated by the market. ~50% of their wagering revenue comes from their tote product which has taken a huge hit on the back of all their retail venues closing. The figures I’ve heard suggest the tote pools have seen a 50% reduction in stake over the last few weeks. The flip-side of this, is that online bookmakers (Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, BetEasy) have reportedly all seen big growth in active users over the same period as the TAB’s retail customer base look elsewhere. It’s widely accepted that the tab’s online offering is horrific compared to others in Australia, and once these customers have had a taste I think it will be very hard for the Tab to get some (if any) of these customers back. Retail outlets in particular will find it difficult to drag customers back through the door once they’ve been exposed to the online world. It’s a unique situation that has forced the hand of countless recreational retail customers to try online betting for the first time, and the majority of them appear to be doing at elsewhere.

A quick glance at the product offering (particularly Sports) during this trying time with limited content, will show that the Tab have basically given up. To be fair, there’s some Sports they aren’t legally permitted to bet on, but if you compare the options a punter has to bet on with any of the other corporates, it’s incredibly difficult to see the TAB retaining their current Sports customer base. They certainly won’t be acquiring any new customers.

Then finally the cash out debacle from the weekend. The numbers thrown around have the incorrect payout in the vicinity of $30 million. Whilst the rules for the TAB on palpable errors are nowhere near as helpful as those in place for corporates via the NTRC, I’m assuming they’ll get the majority of that money back. But I don’t think it’s a given that they get it all back. Best case scenario it’s a sloppy mistake that won’t cost them too much money, but I also think it’s a pretty good barometer of where their wagering business is at.

I certainly don’t have a great track record with investments (punting is more my go) but I think the next set of results released by TAH could be a bit a of jaw dropper as to just how bad the numbers really are. We’ll see.

Hoppy

Expand

Hey,

Update to your post.

The Quaddie cashout issue is sorted they got all of their $$$ back.

Sports was 4% revenue.

Obviously they are taking a hit with Tab shops down but they would be doing really well with Lotto/Keno online.

More people using their online platform which = more Fixed Odds betting where they make more $$$

There are talks that Credit Card betting will be banned in the next year or so. If this is the case and TAB Shops open back up they will have a monopoly of sports, racing, keno and lotto in the country.

Also their competitors are all UK based and are losing ive heard $50mil a month with no racing or sports at the moment. Tabcorp are in a good position to keep or win market share. Those UK bookies won't be spending much $$$ in coming years unwillingly.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	45	71.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

71.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
59.0¢	25051	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

59.0¢

25051

No.	Vol.	Price($)
26	640591	0.650
10	134517	0.645
16	272295	0.640
6	362307	0.635
7	646301	0.630

No.

Vol.

Price($)

640591

0.650

134517

0.645

272295

0.640

362307

0.635

646301

0.630

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.655	338012	23
0.660	883796	26
0.665	121166	11
0.670	274582	9
0.675	763741	5

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.655

338012

0.660

883796

0.665

121166

0.670

274582

0.675

763741

(20min delay)
Last 65.3¢		Change 0.058(9.66%)		Mkt cap ! $1.472B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
60.0¢	65.5¢	59.5¢	$10.10M	15.96M


Last 65.3¢		Change 0.058 ( 9.74 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
60.0¢	65.5¢	59.5¢	3189064
Last updated 15.59pm 14/06/2024 ?

Why I’m shorting TAH, page-2

Featured News

Whitebark launches $1.5M capital raise to progress QLD geothermal assets

Pearl Gull Iron snaffles REE project in Chile, noting geological echoes of China

Triangle gets approval for Perth Basin carbon sequestration project

Dominos looks tasty and tempting, but could be too spicy and even dicey

Telix dips as pharma giant abandons US IPO for NASDAQ listing – despite record run

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Why I’m shorting TAH, page-2

Featured News

Top Stories

Whitebark launches $1.5M capital raise to progress QLD geothermal assets

Pearl Gull Iron snaffles REE project in Chile, noting geological echoes of China

Triangle gets approval for Perth Basin carbon sequestration project

Dominos looks tasty and tempting, but could be too spicy and even dicey

Telix dips as pharma giant abandons US IPO for NASDAQ listing – despite record run

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News