Why I’ve changed my mind on CGF, and some thoughts on sell discipline, page-4

Thank you so much for sharing your analysis, it's great to have access to this kind of in depth view of a business to get an idea of others thoughts on said business, a perfect example of why so many people continually come back to the Hot Copper platform

In regards to the possible acquisition, in general particularly when a company is performing below par, it seems to be the common go to using a strong balance sheet and ability to raise capital to do exactly that, it may make the executive bonuses get met for a few years although likely not good for shareholders long term.

I will VERY rarely sell an investment shortly after purchasing and find myself hesitating as I don't want to get hit with a tax bill from a capital gain on something held for less than a year, however I see the sell side thesis outweighing the buy side (independent to your excellent analysis).

After reading the above which I must say was clearly out of my depth in regards to being able to fundamentally analyze a business like CGF, I'm now even more certain the best choice would likely be to take a profit and just pay the full CGT rate instead of waiting until the 1 year mark before selling to gain the CGT discount.

Last year on the 23rd Jan 2019 was when an "update" was released to guide lower performance pre the half year earnings being released on the 12th of Feb 2019, in other words results in only weeks and hopefully not anything released prior as it's generally always a negative surprise if you hear anything early.

H1 2020 should be smoothed over somewhat by gains in all underlying assets due to almost everything in the world rallying at once, I will likely hold until after results with a view to hopefully pocketing one more dividend and still retaining a good capital gain.

I still think CGF has a great business model and potential but unless I can pick it up at under $7 it's just not in the buy zone, patience has rewarded me on this one before when I sold out at $13.50 and was given the chance to re-enter at under $6.50, to be ready to sell again so soon tells me I'm not comfortable to hold this through the cycles, that in itself should probably make me take more heed in why I feel like that.

I certainly wouldn't invest in CGF the fund manager, so if that's the way they are heading to try and buy growth my decision will be made much easier, if they do that I'll sell and probably top up on PTM.

Ps: just realized in my last CGF post I had sentiment of BUY, this should have been HOLD as soon as it hit over $7 and would move to SELL at $9, that may seem like short term investing but 40% in six months plus a dividend is enough to go from BUY to borderline SELL unless the value of the business is rising with the price which I don't think is the case.