rgc68: Well put by you and I would tend to agree that "testing a close relative of a drug that has spectacularly FAILED" is not a great outlook! However, the fact will remain that a lot of "punters" will buy this stock up in the normal "frenzy" /hype leading-up to the results and hence serious money can likely (but not for sure) be made here.
In the end, the only real losers will - most likely - be those afflicted by AD, which are hoping for a really good outcome here, i.e. not just in the financially speculative sense... Sadly, I may add.
AD is running in my family and I do know the enormous problems / grief etc.
wasa
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