I've been very wrong on the timing of this one so far (based on...

I've been very wrong on the timing of this one so far (based on the SP) — the market certainly has a way of humbling those who dare to believe they can consistently beat it.

Yet, I'm still holding all of my PVL shares and I've averaged down considerably. I'm comfortable with the NTA backing at around 8.1c/share (AUD) [9c NZD/share] and the growth prospects from future valuation rounds for its portfolio companies. As far as I'm aware, there have been no thesis-breaking elements for any of PVL's recent portfolio investments.

In my eyes, the drop in the share price reflects the macroeconomic environment, the current lack of interest in the VC asset class and the exit of some investors with a timeframe much shorter than I.

I'm running with a similar thesis to most, which is that I am comfortable with the management team and also firmly back the judgement of the cornerstone investor (Capital H), whose average entry price is also well above the current share price (smart guys -- but that doesn't guarantee they'll get this right -- although it improves the odds).

Of the portfolio companies, I'm most interested in Skykraft, Quantum Brilliance and CourseLoop. I don't know as much as I would like, but I've recently spoken with some Air Traffic Controllers about Skykraft.

My gut feeling is that the idea is supported in the upper echelons of Air Services Australia, but I'm not (yet) convinced of the extent of real-world applicability/need, which will ultimately drive how much this is worth (pricing power).

I met the SkyKraft Co-Founder/CEO briefly at a pitch event a month ago and he struck me as someone with a high IQ. Let's see how it plays out, there's a long way to go for the share price at 5.2c back up to >20c for James Kruger to be in the green on his incentive package, but one or two 10x's on a portfolio holding will massively help.

PVL has done a good job so far in reducing operating cash requirements, but more can be done on this front. I think the gap between the current share price and NTA should close if that is achieved in conjunction with some stability in the broader market.

As far as I am aware, Capital H, James Kruger, and co. remain locked in, focused and aligned.