Why I am confident of approval.

So for all holders here we are waiting on a decision from Keith Pittwho has the power to make or break Pep 11. I spent some time re-analysing pastinterviews of Keith to discern the different options he could take when it comesto Pep 11.

I believe there are three main reasons Keith could deny the Pep 11 application.

1. NOPTA requirements
2. Environmental concerns
3. Political ramificationsLet’s have a look at these options.

1. Keith will deny the application because it does not meet NOPTA requirements.If the application does not meet NOPTA regulations than I think it is safe tosay that the extension will not be approved. We know the job of NOPTA in this process is to analyse the extension application and thenmake a recommendation to the Joint Authority based on whether they meet currentregulations.

Here’s the thing; I think it is fairly safe to say that NOPTA have put forward apositive recommendation. This is based on two things. Firstly, Barilaro did not sight NOPTA’s recommendation as a reason to deny the permit. Instead, he mentioned although he has reviewed comments supplied by NOPTA he has chosen to follow in the footsteps of the NSW government. Secondly, the application has been with Joint authority for 200 days. If NOPTA had recommended the permit be denied over 6 months ago I think we would have seen the JA follow this recommendation by now.

So it is fairly safe to suggest NOPTA has recommended that theextension be granted. Now let’s have a look at Keith’s comments regarding NOPTA.In every interview I can find regarding Pep 11 Pitt has consistently backed up NOPTA as a world class regulator and stated that he will be relying ontheir advice.

KEITH PITT: This is thousands of square kilometres and the well isabout the size of a dining room table. The exposure is low, the risk is low,we've had an industry for decades more than 50 years in Australia and it’s very strongly regulated byone of the best regulators in the world and it's been successful for avery long time.

KEITH PITT: Well, the decisions that I make are one ones which are based firstly on the advice fromthe regulator, which in this case is NOPTA. Secondly, on ensuring thatthe regulations that we have in place are obviously complied with. But in thiscountry, if you are a company that wishes to operate, to develop, to do otheractivities, and you meet the criteria, well then there's a fair expectation that you areapproved.

KEITHPITT: Well Australianshave a great advantage from the bass straight from literally decades. Now thatarea is in decline in terms of its production particularly for oil. We need oiland gas in this country not only for sovereign issues but also to ensure we canbe internationally competitive. To do that we need to continue to explore;these are expensive processes and they take a long time to come to fruition. Our job as regulators is to setthe rules, as companies out there put up there applications, they meet the requirementsof those regulations. Well I think all companies would expect me to makedecisions based on their applications and the rules that the government hasset.

Keith has stated on multiple occasions that he trusts NOPTA and that companiesthat meet their regulations can expect approval. Given that NOPTA has provideda positive recommendation I think we can rule out Keith denying the applicationon the grounds that the application failed to meet technical requirements

2. Keith will deny the application becauseof Environmental concerns. Lucky for us Paul Turton bought up this issue with Keith and he gave usa clear answer.

PAUL TURTON: What are theenvironmental risks from these exploration sites that you're aware of at thisstage?

KEITH PITT: Well, once again, to get to the stage wherethere is actually exploration, the company or the proponent would need to putforward both a safety and environmental plan.That would need to be approved byNOPSEMA, which is the regulator for offshore oil and gas in this country,recognised as one of the world's best in terms of world leading practise. Andit's been done safely right around the country for quite a long time. Sooffshore facilities have coexisted - and benefited, to be honest - localcommunities, providing jobs and other opportunities for many, many years. Butonce again, we need to make sure we make decisions in the national interest,that we continue to protect the marine environment, and we need a balancedapproach.

First of all it’s nice to see that Keith understands that environmentalregulations are dealt with in the NOPSEMA stage of the application and so it isn’t relevant at this stage. Following that, again Keith highlightsthat we have a world class regulator in place that are set up specifically to makesure that off-shore industries meet strict environmental and safetyrequirements. Keith also has stated that a lot of these concerns have been blownout of proportion.

For Keith Pitt to deny the application because of environmental concerns he hasto go back on everything he said in this answer. He has to not trustthe world class regulator NOPSEMA and not follow the specific process that have been laid out for every application. I think we can conclude that Keith will not be denying NOPTA approval based onenvironmental concerns.

3. Keith Pitt will deny the application because of political ramifications. Again, Keith has provided an answer regarding the influence politics will haveon his decision.

QUESTION:Minister one of the seats wherethere has been a vocal complaint of the extension of Pep 11 is in the marginalseat of Robinsons. Lucy Wicks holds the seat at the moment. There could be politicalramifications from your decision, is that something that you factor in?

KEITH PITT:Absolutely not. Lucy is a very strongrepresentative for her community she’s made their views very clear not only tome put also publically that that’s what I expect from a local member. I myselfam a local member up in Queensland and the people that send me to Canberra sendme to fight for them so that’s no surprise.

“Absolutely not.” Keith Pitt gavea very clear answer regarding whether he will be letting politicschange his decision. Throughout Keith’s political career we haveseen him make unpopular decisions because he thought it was the right thing todo.

So that’s my analysis. I think there is clear evidence to suggest thatKeith won’t be denying the application because of NOPTA regulations,environmental concerns or political ramifications. In fact, he has given clearanswers in each of these areas that point towards approval.

Perhaps overkill making a post this long but I have a significant invesment in BPH and I wanted to make sure I was investing in a likely outcome and not gambling on a coinflip. I am not suggesting there is 0 risk or approval is 100% but I did want to lay out why myself and many holders maintain their confidence. DYOR and GLTAH.