FRM 3.00% 9.7¢ farm pride foods limited

Didak i'm not saying they purchase an existing egg farm. Far...

  1. 636 Posts.
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    Didak i'm not saying they purchase an existing egg farm. Far worse - I am saying they could purchase any land and start another operation from scratch (increase in industry capacity). For example: what if say Ingham's (just an example - it could be a Chinese company the way things are going) decided that your right and that ROE in eggs was going to stay at permanently high levels.

    Yes they could purchase land for $10mill and machinery (at costs) and then start selling eggs worth $15million because I don't think there is anything particularly unique about the way FRM operates their chicken farm that is protected from competitors entering the market - that is I share MarsC view that all the things you listed (land, buildings, machinery, flock, bank account, inventory, experienced people, commercial networks, livestock management, handling processes aren't hard to access if you have the capital). I suspect the big thing stopping people doing this at the moment is that they don't expect ROE to stay north of 20%. Having said that like I said I do expect our good returns to continue for the next few years at which time the NTA will have risen to the current stock price anyhow.

    I'm a holder and likely to remain a holder but surely you can see that with a business like this it is never worth 2 or 3 times the value of the farm long term. This isn't a slight on management.

    Another way to view this is that if you buy the stock up to NTA (or you can calculate your own NTA if you revalue the land values) then you are buying the farm which you can always sell (and I personally like having the land and farm exposure at NTA). If you are buying the stock above NTA then you are buying the farm + paying a premium that you think the economics will stay higher for a period of time. You may think this stays higher forever so you will pay more than I will. I believe it will stay higher for a while (but not forever) so I will pay more than MarsC will.
 
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