Portfolio I think we found the middle ground. I have never said that FRM is immune to margin variance and competition entry.
I agree with you, yes the chinese or any other entity can enter the market and start egg business. But do you really think its that easy? To buy land is a day, to build a farm with machinery and equipment is another year (dont underestimate frm advantage here - I think they have some pretty groovy automation and low cost stuff), to populate sheds another year. So really to get eggs into boxes is a 2.5 years lead time from now on... But at this stage no one entering... Also do you think that the new large entity would enter coles/woolies so easily? Farm pride or sunny queen they guarantee supermarkets peace of mind, they have quality and processes tested over time, and the last thing wow/coles want is to turn their egg supply upside down. Yes I agree companies can enter but it is not so attractive to enter industry as they will hurt their potential margins as well. Also frm management experience is a significant advantage.
I bought frm at 0.150 therefore 30% of past nta. Happy to hold as well and see how the next two years will unfold. As you stated frm is quite safe for next 2 years. I will revalue after feb and every 6 months. Roe might fall to 17% or so, but currently they make decent $$$ and looks like this year will be solid. The key is to get 7% revenue growth.
I think both of us should be rewarded holders comes august'17. I see upside to $2. Good luck.
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Portfolio I think we found the middle ground. I have never said...
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