Why I am not buying FRM, page-51

@CptAwesome

I'm going to try to make this my last post here (until xmas, anyway! ;-] ), as I sense I have long over stayed my welcome.... :'(

It's quite possible that we are currently in a long term cycle comprising high grain prices (over the last 10 years or so). I honestly don't know. My point is that over the medium to long term, i don't believe FRM has the competitive myscle to sustain a high return on its capital. In fact, I believe a mediocre return is more likely. So if in the short term past, grain prices have provided a boost to ROE, I am not willing to perform a valuation that assumes such an ROE can be sustained.

Sure, whatever margin pressures act over the longer term, will give time for the industry to reach some equillibrium. I just suspect that the equillibrium condition will not comprise highly attractive returns on capital.

Why would i expect, what looks like a 2 or 3 year transitionary period, to comprise the ever after?