Why I am out at 17.5-18c and don't think it is going to 50c

I am happy to sell what I bought at 10.5c and 11c for 17.5c and 18c and be done. The risk reward is off to me right now and 10c seems likely again. Regal, John Franklin and others might have a similar view on risk reward. them selling still has me worried and not wanting to hold this too long.

check the articles below. the issue with Saudis not paying is a known problem. It seems some big companies even settled with them for 40% of what was due and settled years later.

https://www.pymnts.com/news/b2b-payments/2019/saudi-arabia-late-delayed-supplier-invoices/
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2019/11/06/general-dynamics-is-missing-billions-due-to-a-canadian-saudi-spat/

so my view is the $50m+ deal either won't happen or even if it does it won't be boost price long term

1. imo no one needs that many jammer guns, it won't protect the country from any real threats by sophisticated drones or swarms. from my limited understanding even DRO thinks that many jammers wont do much but is still hopeful for the sale based on relationships and commitments
2. so the deal may not happen. after all it has not happened despite high conviction for 1.5 yrs

3. if the deal is agreed on. then the stock price may shoot up which is why i was debating to hold. but there is still so much risk.
4. but even if agreed on the the Saudis may never actually pay for the order. DRO will almost definitely have to dilute to try to fill it. and DRO may dilute and then the Saudis may back out. imagine the stock could be in a worse diluted state because of the commitment.
5. if everything goes perfect. and it has not gone even close to perfect so far. it will take years to fulfill and payment will be not be guaranteed and full payment not even likely.

some people on this board think a single 50m in sales means 50m every year and that means that the stock should go to 70c to represent a 200m valuation. it seems unlikely that will happen and almost impossible that the price will stay there if it does. to me its a bit like wolf of wall street logic. even if the sale happens it is probably delivered over 3-4 years as the 3m one was delivered over 2-3 years. and the Saudis maybe pay for 80%. so it's more like 10m extra in sales a year. and its a one off sale. this big sale wont happen every year. that might justify a market cap of 40m with everything else going on which is below where the company is at right now. that is if it happens and if they actually execute.

i'm not totally down on DRO. i just see it as a poor risk to reward right now. if DRO disappoints and the market gets down on this stock again and i might buy shares for 8-10c. but i think the valuation is way ahead of itself again.

if you feel differently and have a good reason let me know. i can still rebuy at less than what i sold and i am always happy to make money