Great post although I don't agree with a number of your assertions.
1. Your concerns around payment not occuring/being reduced is overblown.
Regarding the Canada v. Saudi deal issue - that was a Geopolitical tension. Highly doubt this would occur to DRO given it is Australian and the govt has got a big enough fight on it's hands with China to get into a stupid conflict with Saudi's. Note also AUS status as America's BFF and it would be exceptionally unlikely for the Saudi's to take punitive actions against a $50m deal let alone the $2.7m currently owing.
2. I couldnt find any evidence that the Canadian v. Saudi deal took a pay cut
The line from the company involved was that there was no dispute in the amount owed, simply a political difficulty in getting it paid.
3. Your characterisation of Saudi's as dodgy buyers has no basis
DRO noted that middle east can be slow/difficult to get payment from but ultimately they will pay. The only evidence provided is a geopolitical spat which has no relevance to DRO.
4. You downplay the demand without providing any justification
The middle east is a constant hotbed of military action. It is a volatile area and drones are a cheap and effective tactic being used by the little guy against the big guy. Anti-drone sales in the middle-east alone justify optimism in DRO.
https://iqna.ir/en/news/3471867/yemen-launches-massive-drone-attacks-in-saudi-arabia
5. You've ignored the US, AUS/NZ and EU sales
All of which pay on-time. The share price was sitting comfortably at 10c before the EU deal and US sales were announced. Those were new, material growth indicators which support new future earnings growth to be factored in.
Lastly it appears you might have bought DRO on the expectation the $50m deal would come through and you would easily triple your money. The historic jump up to $0.4c was driven by this sentiment. I would agree with your bearish tone back then, but as of now I think it's not quite right.
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Why I am out at 17.5-18c and don't think it is going to 50c, page-6
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Last
$3.72 |
Change
0.480(14.8%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.253B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$3.29 | $3.72 | $3.19 | $171.2M | 50.07M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
10 | 14977 | $3.72 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$3.73 | 95716 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
10 | 14977 | 3.720 |
5 | 17167 | 3.700 |
6 | 15168 | 3.680 |
3 | 37698 | 3.670 |
4 | 27505 | 3.660 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.730 | 95716 | 2 |
3.740 | 150 | 1 |
3.750 | 74807 | 9 |
3.770 | 79 | 1 |
3.790 | 4711 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.20pm 15/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Shanthar Pathmanathan, MD
Shanthar Pathmanathan
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