Hi Spec, I am a little disappointed. there are 2 articles and...

Hi Spec, I am a little disappointed. there are 2 articles and google! do a little research mate.

SirKnight, good post. I hope the below addresses most of it.

1. 40c isn't historic highs
when Oleg took over DRO was at 45c on Brian Hearing being a first mover and relationships with US founders having ins with US military. That was around 4 yrs ago. The price dropped to 10c when people were unhappy with Olegs progress. Rumors last year of the big pipeline 10m annual from BT and the any day now 70m from the Saudis pushed it to 45c again. Then it went to 10c on being unhappy with Olegs progress. What we seem to have today is largely the same rumors with EU police added. The first mover advantage is gone.

2. the second article deals with the Saudis not paying or being slow to pay US customers
if you google you can see that some providers had offered to settle for 40% of what was owed. US kingpins BCG and massive defense contractor General Dynamics had some problems. Saudi sales are much more risky. My guess is they pay but it could take a year and may not be the full amount. the point is a $50m sale to the US you get paid and on time. With the Saudis you it is a bit of a risky deal but it is a lot less competitive than the US. You pay a high commission and hope a broker gets it through. And if it goes through there is risk they even pay or the order is delivered. that is completely true.

3. demand is huge. but DRO is not top 10.
i do not ignore demand. demand is huge. the winners were picked years ago. The midsize specialists already won
US Navy - tens of millions with CACI
US AF - tens of millions with Ascent
US Army - over 100 million with SRC
Gatwick and Heathrow and JFK are protected and it is not DRO. they lost.
Anduril has a valuation around 2b
then there are the big guys like Raytheon, Boeing, Northrop, who have distribution and are more innovative
then there are the little guys with less sophisticated solutions. they sell jammers and 250k passive options.
Rafael (look at Drone Dome), Drone Defence (look at Aero Sentry), Rheinmetall, IAI , the list goes on and on... then DRO. the list is long. this is no longer a small field.

4. The US bought tester units. It is standard due diligence to try out the field
the US and many governments have done this from DRO before. no sales resulted. the US process procures small amounts of units from a lot of players. it may work this time. just if you like patterns. it is unlikely.

5. DRO does not have special technology. It has few real patents. IMO its strength is packaging and marketing
I am not sure but based on a the lack of patents i think a lot of the DRO technology is borrowed or leased from other people. This is what Peter James only other drone company did. It seems to be the business model for small time drone players. I can provide a link. My wild guess is Rafael and Drone Defence do the same. It is very similar to what all of the other guys have and I do not think they could patent if if they wanted. Ok fine. If DRO could really make all of its own tech it would be worth more. but they do not. They package it nicely and develop relationships with distributors.

6. So the DRO natural market is large. but its mostly small orders which can add up
They can sell it to small police forces that need a couple guns. So DRO can win with AU military. We desperately want to support our own. Same with NZ. Same with local police forces with a 100k budget for 2 guns. This is the DRO market. The Saudi deal does not really make sense to me. DRO cannot stop what happened to their oil fields. But often in Saudi the play is to get in with the distributor. But DRO has not been very good so far. The 100 distributors and they are either selling someone else or not DRO.

these are my opinions. I would not be suprised to see this go to 25c or 30c like last year but i have a feeling we will see 10c again. i think we should make a separate chat to discuss 3-6. if i am wrong i could buy back in. now cheaper. points 1 and 2 are boring. and i've seen how threads get in this chat.