I went short Linc over the last week.
My reasons are outlined below. I am posting in the interests of robust discussion of the merits of my points below and alternative views to assist us all in decision making.
1. Gulf Coast - the Gulf Coast oil assets should be the cash cow of the company. They were acquired for a very rich price using expensive debt. As with many salt domes in the region (see many of my posts on Maverick Drilling, MAD) new wells often exhibit very rapid decline rates and arguably are often barely economic, if not uneconomic. The assets have significantly disappointed - management was promoting a run rate of 9,000 bopd at the end of cal 13 not long ago and yet production has stagnated at around half that. The company is generating significant negative cashflow from these assets without materially increasing production rates which is a worrying sign.
2. Debt levels - Linc's debt levels are unsustainably high, $547m at 30 June. Given that the company is not producing any free cashflow (nor will they be in the next couple of years) it's hard to see how this debt will be paid down in the near term if at all.
3. Upside too far into the future to service debt - Further to my last point, the only way I foresee the debt being paid off and a return to shareholders being generated is through monetizing one of their 'blue sky' projects. Umiat is years away from free cashflow (if at all - this asset has been kicked around for decades without being developed), UCG has always been and remains a pipe dream in my opinion, and the Australian shale prospects have not attracted a bid despite 8 months of heavy marketing by Barclays.
4. Cash burn - the company had negative operating cashflow of >$77m last quarter, and $123m cash at bank. Admittedly there was some noise in upfront debt costs and they are expecting $20m to come from Exxaro this quarter, but even in an optimistic scenario I see them running out of cash in ~6 months, especially with an expensive Alaskan drilling program coming up. At that point they'll be forced into a heavily dilutive equity raising in my opinion. I also note that none of the well known broking firms are issuing research on the stock, a troubling sign for a company with such a large market cap and such an obvious funding gap. Normally the brokers would be issuing research like crazy if they foresaw a cap raising fee in the pipeline. I think it's unlikely that they'd be able to raise more notes or other debt given current burn rate and current asset package.
Sponsorship of cricket teams (for what reason???) and advertisements to buy the stock in the print media only add to my concerns that this is a sinking ship desparately trying to stay afloat until (if?) one of their speculative investments can be monetised.
I'm short Linc with a target price well below $1 at which point they will raise equity which will push the SP down further. Downside scenario is negligible equity value if one of their speculative plays doesn't come in and the creditors move in (don't forget that there is secured debt against the cash flowing oil assets which are underperforming).
(NB: Given that I cannot make a short position disclosure I am disclosing 'position held' with a sell sentiment).
I look forward to your collective thoughts.
Everest
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