Alan, you make the point that these issues have been around for...

Alan, you make the point that these issues have been around for years.

Correct, they have.

However, the evidence seems to suggest that we are close to the actual crisis point where the dominoes could start falling. (NOTE: I am not saying they WILL start falling, but the possibility is there.)

The charts people should be looking at are the USDX chart (approaching all time low), and the price of Oil (a few % of all time high).

The Chinese have started to make veiled threats as to their position in USD denominated assets, and have started setting up investment funds NOW which involve withdrawing cash from their USD treasuries.

The US may be planning to cut rates NOW which could force the USDX down below 80 (if they don't cut rates the market will be disappointed and our market will fall, and if they do cut the USDX could be smashed through that crucial point). In fact, the US have an incentive to print as much money as the world will allow them because any falls in their own currency devalues their huge US dollar denominated debt.

Japanese interest rates are lucky not to have risen recently.

The subprime issue has merely just been acknowledged and clearly we have not seen the worst of it, with the banks having to mark their losses to market and the upcoming resets in the next months and years.

And the Euro zone is just a basketcase. Not to mention the Chinese stock exchange is up 200% this year.

Our great white hope in Australia is that the Chinese and Indian economies can power us through this via our resource stocks, but nonetheless if any of these problem triggers is pulled we will be hit hard.

Anyways, nothing wrong with going long while stops are in place, but I don't think buying and holding is a fait accompli solution to wealth creation over the next few years.