Asking for a 'friend'—not me, of course. Like everyone else at HC, I'm a deca-millionaire with earning min $500k/year and naturally a stock trading genius of the highest order.
Anyway, this 'friend' is curious: given that the ASX is at an all-time high and there seems to be no historical evidence to suggest that once an all-time high is reached, we can safely predict of a day in the future in which it will trade lower, why would one currently hold a generic ETF like VAS? Wouldn't it be wiser to be cashed up until the market 'inevitably' dips below the all-time high (ATH)?
This question isn't about predicting when the 'bubble will burst' or picking the right stock. It's essentially about the logic of holding a generic ETF when we can be 99% sure that the future will include periods where it trades lower than today. Why, then, would hold a ETF if we are going long?
