Mickeebee, you clearly understand how an insurance business...

Mickeebee, you clearly understand how an insurance business operates better than most people and I really liked your post and agree with your sentiments in the long run.

However, I think in the short term this will push beyond $10 if the current price sits here into next week. As you say, all they need to do is pull a another 200m or so from the claims reserves due to positive prior year claims development, as they did in the 1HY (CFO already said they'll likley be able to do something similar 2HY). Couple this with the fact that 50% of this 2HY is over and 5 & 10 yr T bills have already gone up, with gradual increases to come, they may not have to take another $283m hit on the risk-free rates they use.

Currency will most certainly be a negative for them but I dont think attritional claims will continue to rise.

In any case, my plan is to ride the macro wave of optimism for QBE over the next 3 months and get out before any actual facts are presented.

Cheers
Peekay