dont think attritional will rise? look at every...

dont think attritional will rise? look at every division.....current year is up, up and away (DYOR)

pay close...very close attention to how the CFO ensures "underlying" to hit the COR targets each release date, since he came aboard, range has always been met...how? PY always compensates for the current year shortfall...how long can you continue to dip into your reserves and use PY discounts/releases as your saving grace?

....a bit of actuarial 101 tweaking of course...luv the countless "normalization" and "notwithstanding" the ordinary course of their insurance business!!

lets break it down -
Expenses - high - reinvestment is a smoke and mirror story...a lot more needs to be spent, way more than any fictitious "savings" to bring platforms up to speed...globally! imagine the true cost of global integration - would be good when they can get it, but what is the upfront cost NOW...

Commission ratio - the big boys do the dictating here...they want commission earnings growth not attrition..pay us or get no luv say the aons and marsh's - they rain supreme - with a shrinking GWP - how can u demand discounts?

which leaves the fudging to the Claims ratio (PY PY PY..)
- lets combine latam with asia (genius! - call it emerging!) to cloud high attritional in asia (less profitable than announced - very high commissions dont help) with the abysmal latam ops and all their issues...then divest of as many of the really bad portfolios as possible (at a loss of course!) and show an amazing turnaround to COR - oh wait, still making no money...
EO - lets ring-fence med claims (so inlfated GWP/NEP) because that was bad business and while we are at it, ring fence anything that is bad....and disregard it in the numbers (great for the sales team!) and hope it doesnt continue to go pair shaped - FX wont help there...where is the pound headed?
ANZ - industry dial turning nasty? we may have to "discount" to be competitive....competition, LMI losing (lost) its shine...got rid of CGU just in time...is this a business in growth phase, plateau or decline?
NA - well...growth or major shrinkage?
equator re - dont even get me started...lets move everything AWAY from whatever division needs it and bury it here...! so divisional issues stay inhouse! luv it...genius!

look at GWP/NEP over time, is it going up...or down - even "normalised"....if GWP is falling year on year, NEP is a trailing beast...wonder who determines what and when NEP is earned? another actuarial 101 tweak...


ignore me....ranting - really hope u guys make some dough here....just wanting to provide my two bob for the ignorant and newbies...GLTAH seriously - alot needs to be spent - IT, global platforms, sales tools, data mining etc that have been sacrificed or ignored in pursuit of il timed, poor performing global acquisitions. major clean up is occuring, but does a share price rise or fall during clean up mode?

many a portfolios more to divest and key growth identified before i ever touch this beast..

all IMHO (DYOR)..GLTAH