I calculate the organic growth every fy myself and use method a bit different from the company presentations. You get the previous fy full year number and add in the part year acquired number prior to acquisition => base line, get the current year number and deduct what was acquired during the year (often part year) => pro forma organic
Compare the organic to the base line there is always decent growth.
Taking into account the part year impact makes fair bit of difference.
It's also worth bearing in mind the business travel environment ctd has been operating in. Concerted economic growth never happened in its geographies, and air fare pressure high.
Looking forward, air fare is stabilizing and there is strong sign of early stage growth in EU and maybe even in US. This business is highly leveraged to that.
It's a cyclical business that has achieved impressive organic growth during the down cycle. Want to see what it can do in a up cycle? Cannot wait...
Roll up model alone never sustains a market darling for very long. The other side of the coin is that strong acquisition track record is extremely hard to achieve and keep. It's almost like a.... gift. That's worth a premium. Rolling up with a strong track record and NOT just achieving a adding effect but a compounding impact. That is a gift that I could not pass.
It's about fair value for me but man... I would not let it go without at least 30% premium to fair value.
CTD Price at posting:
$22.35 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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