why i still buying , page-11

In September 2006, a fund called Amaranth, ironically named after a flower that "never dies," had to shut down after it lost close to $7 billion in a few days, the
most impressive loss in trading history.

A few days prior to the event, the company made a statement to the effect that investors should not worry because they had twelve risk managers—people who use models of the past to produce risk measures on the odds of such an event.

Even if they had one hundred and twelve risk managers, there would be no meaningful difference; they still would have blown up. Clearly you cannot manufacture more information than the past can deliver; We just don't know how much information there is in the past.

Nobodies could avoid distortion and hopes. About ERG, we will have the distortion and biases too.