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Why I support the NO Vote, page-2

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ravishankaray

11,084 Posts.

15/03/17

21:06

Post #: 23379348
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Originally posted by Camdenbob ↑

I will be supporting the NO vote!

I explain my rational for so doing. It is for people to either accept or reject my position. But that is my position.

It will not change unless some incredible situation transpires.

Flexibility is always important.

The following is not financial or legal advice. Opinion only.

No conspiracy!
I do not accept the assertions that RC has conspired with MB to transfer the assets of CTP to MB for a song to the detriment of shareholders.

I do accept that if the “yes” vote gets up that RC will keep managing CTP (as a privately owned company) and make sure that the GSA is signed and gas flows.

He will in my opinion be significantly rejuvenated (NOT miraculously) by the ability to have access to a bottomless pit of ready money without having to listen to shareholders screaming at him and make his dream come true, but unfortunately at our expense.

I saw a man last night who has clearly been in a major fight with someone (metaphorically speaking) since I saw him in November 2016, and it has clearly taken its toll.

He looks tired and in need of a good night’s sleep, the spring in his step was missing, his exuberance was about 60% of what it normally is. He was clearly frustrated by the situation because of the following issues.

The following is not exhaustive, just too many for me to list but it is the substance of the problems raised.

Lack of exploration that has occurred in Australia in recent times, 63% drop in exploration in the last 2 years, meaning that no new gas fields.

Fracking bans in place limiting exploration and gas supply.

Oil price controlling the gas price as the energy markets link the two

Until Oil prices rise, gas exploration is too expensive in Australia.

As a consequence no one is lending any money NO ONE!!

People came through the data room after MB had left and preliminary “feel us up” offers were made.

Indicative offers suggested were I stress in VERY general terms 10 cents a share for 50% of shares (I Presume by way of SPP) maybe even worse.

Don’t hold me or RC to any amounts as he did not to my recollection mention any exact amount, I am simply indicating the types of offers apparently discussed.

Yes, I have done the calculations and that is exactly the same as MB is offering us and if CTP accepted such an offer we would still have 50% of CTP.

But as I say it is in most general terms and was always as I understand it, always subject to the problem that MB effectively has it bloody great foot on CTP and if the money lenders put money in MB could come in with an offer that effectively causes the lenders to lose any monies invested.

Such as $40 Mil paid to CTP for say 50% (Min) of company. Money is paid across to CTP and shares issued, MB then comes in and makes a takeover offer for 20 cents.

With whatever change the $40 mil makes to any valuation, the offer is still 20 cents.

So the lender/new shareholder is effectively left with getting an amount that may be less than the $40 Mil

So clearly they did not want to lend due to that uncertainty.

Therein lies the problem.

Gas shortage

So we now find ourselves (CTP and Australia) in what may be described as a bloody great mess. Commonly known as a “cock up”
Australia is short of gas, media articles indicate massive loss of manufacturing and jobs facing Australia, all looming very soon. Today over 800 people were stood down from Darwin Ipex.

Inpex: More than 800 workers stood down from $36b Darwin gas project

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-15/inpex-gas-project-darwin- workers-stood-down-laing-orouke-jkc/8355386

Prime Minster Turnbull in discussion with gas company bosses today announces that he has struck an agreement with Gas companies that they will make sufficient gas supplies available to ensure that electricity supplies are not affected.

“Nine gas company bosses were summoned to today's meeting in Canberra.
Mr Turnbull said they would increase supply in order to meet domestic and international demand.

He would not be drawn on how the companies would increase supply, but said they would revise up their domestic gas production forecasts”.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-15/gas-companies-guarantee-domestic- supply/8357376

Bloody marvellous, so he gets a guarantee about electricity supplies BUT nothing is said about ensuring gas is able to be supplied to the Eastern market for business to stay alive.

Bloody incredible !!.

So effectively the Eastern Seaboard is no better off after today, and is quickly moving towards a national disaster.

If Turnbull had properly grasped the enormity of the problem he would have no doubt at least mooted that the fracking ban was going to over ridden by Commonwealth Legislation.

But NO he won’t do that because the bloody greenies and brownies and commo’s all vote and he has no balls to stand up to them!!

That in fairness may well happen in the next few months. BUT that may be too late for a lot of business.

Certainly in 18 months to 2 years time they will be well and truly up “Ship Creek” if not already!!

According to RC last night ONLY CTP can fill the NG Pipeline, as it has gas that is not subject to any fracking ban etc.

REPEAT ONLY CTP.

In normal circumstances that must be the best ever position for CTP shareholders position to be in. A once in a lifetime position.

GSA

RC said last night that, the difficulty CTP has is (again in general terms) that CTP needs significant amount of money (let’s say $30 to $40 mil) probably higher to prove up the GSA.

Now I must say that was the first time I had heard that CTP had to spend a significant amount to prove up the gas so we could sign a GSA.

Apparently without the drilling and proving up of quality and quantity we cannot sign a GSA.

Again the solution was with sufficient money we could sign the GSA.

At every other presentation of RC I have attended it was always stated that RC was waiting for transportation costs to be arrived at and the gas price to get significantly higher.

Once that occurred he would sign a GSA and approach a Bank and get money for exploration. NOT the other way around!!

Now that was a bloody shock and left a very nasty taste in my mouth.

All was blue sky and then suddenly we are in a situation that (on RC statements) could not be solved in today’s economic climate. Leaving us at the mercy of MB.

SOA

Let me say I think that the independent valuation may well value the company at approximately the same value as MB. so I would not hold my breath waiting for them to say it’s a low ball offer. I may be proven wrong but we shall see.

Consequences of SOA vote.

Yes vote succeeding simply means game over red rover.

If NO vote succeeds then to my mind at least 3 situations will possibly present themselves.

So NO vote gets up (margin will affect the quality of the vote) a close no vote will not have the force that a solid “bugger off” offer will have, then at least the following possibilities may occur.

Next day the share price drops, as it was around 10 to 12 cents before the 1^st MB offer, so it will possibly revert back, it may even go down to 7 or 8 cents.

That will give people to double down on any investments. (Possibly)

MacBank is in the position of having lent CTP some $85 mil and can’t call it in while we pay the monthly payments

MacBank has paid $52 mil for half of Merrenee so at the very least it has exposure of some $140 + million. but MB wants to get its hands on CTP because it is according to RC (imperative) that this drilling is completed by say January so that Jemeena can start laying pipe at the beginning of the dry spell.

CLEARLY any delay of that process puts pressure on SOMEONE to resolve that situation.

I don’t think that outside financiers will move from their current position. So that only leaves MB.

If the drilling is imperative, WHY would MB sit on their hands and just allow that opportunity to evaporate.

If the drilling is imperative why would MB risk the Government changing the law to allow fracking on Airlie Beach and have it rowed across to the Gas Trains.

No, If there is one thing that MB are NOT. they are not stupid, they are highly intelligent and competent people, and they have every contingency covered, including a NO vote getting up and the consequences of that.

So what do I think will happen, (if the NO vote gets up).

I think common-sense (and MB gorilla tactics) indicates that they will come back with another offer fairly quickly say 4 to 6 weeks. In my opinion it would probably be 50 cents cash. (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE) only a bloody guess on my part.

“There you go you great uneducated and unwashed shareholders, you made us pay”. (false tears)

It would have a better chance of getting up and accepted BUT may still be rejected.

OR, they go HOSTILE

And go into the market place and just buy and buy and buy until they get to the position of being able to change the board of directors and control the company.

So, on the basis of the “imperative” urgency that RC has stated, and the short time frames from now through to January 2018. I am prepared to support the NO vote.

In for a penny in for a pound.

It is time for the mouse to roar !! and be heard.

Camdenbob [email protected]

Expand

"Such as $40 Mil paid to CTP for say 50% (Min) of company. Money is paid across to CTP and shares issued, MB then comes in and makes a takeover offer for 20 cents."

Wouldn't that mean that the new lender would get their money back if they paid 20c per share ?

CTP Price at posting: 20.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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