why i think a deal will happen

I don't think it is a question of 'if' ELM will be taken over/partnered but 'when'. From a demand perspective, the long term outlook for potash remains bullish, despite the cartel breakup last year (and, in any event, there are media reports this week speculating that the cartel is reforming... prices are creeping back up...). Dingyi are keen to own ELM's potash assets and they have put all their eggs in the ELM basket; the time and expense they have already put into the deal plus their decision to appeal the RTO decision proves this to be the case.

If the appeal is successful, the takeover at 66c will likely proceed in the next few months. But even if the appeal is unsuccessful, and even if all further options with the HK exchange prove unsuccessful, then I think Dingyi will still make the deal happen by either becoming a private company or relisting on an exchange that is more mining friendly (e.g., ASX, Toronto, or perhaps AIM (London). Once a decision is made, the re-listing process can take as little as two months.

And I think a failed appeals process with HK Exchange could actually prove to be a blessing in disguise as it would allow sufficient time for a second bidder to emerge in a climate of rising potash prices. If this scenario played out, then either the second bidder or dingyi would need to offer a figure materially in excess of 66c in order to be successful.

The key risk to a takevor/partnering deal completing (in one form or another) in the foreseeable future would be some kind of new GFC or cartel breakup type event that causes the long term outlook for potash demand/pricing to become solidly bearish – such that the long term profitability of ELM's mines comes into question. Given that global economies are in a recovery phase, and given that the cartel issue has already been and gone, and given dramatically rising populations (especially in India, China, and Brazil), it is hard to see what would cause such an event. Chinese banks inparticular seem very keen to finance the development of ELM's mines.

So, as I see things, there is a reasonably high probability that investors buying at current levels will be able to lock in a 140%+ profit; it is just a question of when.