Why I think a Yes vote will mean a capital raising, page-33

@jurgen I will agree with you on some points but disagree on others.

I agree that you could not sell Kalkaroo for $500M. The NPV represents the present value of the future cashflows assuming HAV had the money to invest in the project, that is the return it would generate. However, HAV doesn't have the cashflow nor the ability to raise enough cash to get the project off the ground. Therefore, shareholders should not think the value to HAV is $500M.

If someone was to buy Kalkaroo outright, then they would need to factor the purchase price to HAV as an upfront cost along with the other capital costs of the project, and that will change the NPV to a purchaser. I also agree that a purchaser would apply a higher discount than 7.5%. Therefore, the value of Kalkaroo on a sale basis would be much less than $500M and perhaps something closer to a 10th of that amount.

However, I disagree with your statement "The market value of a project with a large NPV that no one wants is really Nil" to the extent that you are inferring Kalkaroo has no value. My understanding is that there are parties interested in Kalkaroo, but HAV has been saying it will do more testing to improve the recoveries to improve the project economics - but current management have not delivered on this in the time that they said they would. Why has it taken longer, I don't know. I suspect that potential purchasers or JV partners have been only willing to pay based on what has been proven (which is reasonable) and management not willing to sell at a price less than what they think they can prove - but haven't yet (so they should be their finger out, finalise what they can prove within a limited time or sell/JV with what they have). But Kalkaroo is not worth nothing.