I know the title to this thread may get you thinking -
Who is this TWINVEST and what is he smoking?
After the last few days an increase in volume and attention in the stock I thought I would try and summarise a few things in one post.
Warning : this post could get a little long but will try and keep it as compact as possible
Long story short I stumbled across ADO late 2010/early 2011 - at the time I was holding about 6-8 companies - mostly small/micro caps and I was looking for innovative companies with a potential disruptive product or market opportunity.
Now it didn't take too long at all before the other stocks got thinned out as I found myself researching ADO more and more.
I was new to Hot Copper and really didn't know what to expect but with a little digging have met many ADO shareholders as well as the management several times and made some great networks with some very savvy investors.
Nearly 3 years later and a couple of thousand hot copper ado posts later we come to today -
I apologise to some as they are probably sick of reading my posts as some days it is more of a head clearing experience as part of the journey - the old "teach once, learn twice" theory -which I feel has kept me sane during a long consolidation period.
Firstly - the most important thing in any company is MANAGEMENT
And let me tell you Geoff Cumming CEO is one of the best if not the best I have met as far as shareholder relations go.
Now to keep this post short and to the point -
Why will ADO IMO be a billion dollar company longer term ?
* Disruptive product MIXNGO set to revolutionise the multi billion dollar healthcare markets
* VERY STRONG patents granted in Europe , Japan , USA and Australia giving intellectual protection for 20 years plus with a layering structure that could extend this in time further.
* VERY LOW cost business model - because it is primarily a royalty based business model this business is majorly scalable with costs not expected to exceed $5m per year even as royalties grow
* In the right place at the right time - MIXNGO helps make products CHEAPER , FASTER RESULTS and INCREASED SENSITIVITY - with tight government restrictions on healthcare costs this is where MIXNGO and ADO will be a shining star
So what are the top prospects?
POINT OF CARE 1 - PHILIPS
POC1 - this company through research from many has been identified as global healthcare giant PHILIPS HEALTHCARE - this has not been formally released as ADO are working on a new POINT OF CARE device MAGNOTECH - which is anticipating launch in 2014 targeting their first test for TROPONIN - which is a biomarker to detect if a patient has damage to the heart muscle following myocardial infarction.
This cardiac market globally is worth in excess of $1 billion per year
The philips device has the potential to be unique in that with miniaturisation to allow for potential MULTIPLEXING which allows for multiple targets to be detected on one assay.
PHILIPS had been working with a company FUTURE DIAGNOSTICS for about 6 years but was having trouble launching the device - that is until they give ADO and MIXNGO a go - I asked Geoff at the AGM what he anticipated they had spent on development prior to coming to use MIXNGO and Geoff said $10's of millions and in 3 months ADO Achieved more than they had previously in 6 years - expect more developments on this over the coming months.
POC 1 deal - my opinion on revenue $10 -$20m per year including possibility of ADO becoming their exclusive global assay producer
My assigned value for POC1 to shareprice 15- 30 cents
POINT OF CARE 2 - ALERE/BBI SOLUTIONS - global leader in POINT OF CARE
This was the deal that really got me hooked on ADO - WHY?
* ALERE has annual sales on LATERAL FLOW POINT OF CARE in excess of $2 billion per year
* it has just been announced that ADO is working with BBI SOLUTION ( who is an ALERE subsidiary company ) to develop a NEXT GENERATION LATERAL FLOW PLATFORM With the intention to incorporate MIXNGO with anticipated launch in second half 2014.
* This is the announcement that the market is yet to fully understand WHY?
Because they are the global market leader in a multi billion dollar market that is expected to grow at 12-14% cagr over the next 5 years.
* In the recent microcap presentation Geoff stated that either of these deals (poc1 and poc2) would be worth at least $10m each to ADO PER YEAR
Now for Geoff to say those numbers I think he is being quite conservative
But even assuming $10 m per year in 5 years time with growth will be $20m per year in royalties
POC2 deal ALERE / BBI - my assigned value due to market leading position , proven sales platform and current sales in excess of $2 billion which Geoff said MIXNGO could be attached to all of is
POC2 - 25 - 45 cents per share
CHINESE IVD COMPANY
Judging by Some responses at the AGM and Geoff's wording on the most recent BOARDROOM RADIO interview - this deal is only weeks away.
What could it be worth?
They are a small IVD company but positioned for extreme high growth in the Chinese IVD MARKET- this company has been suggested on Hot copper through some research to be CAPITAL BIO (see recent posts from Mjc and tc63)
Geoff said at the AGM that they have revenue in excess of $100m per year - it was also stated that they would rather go for higher royalties and a lower upfront payment so any guess from 5-10% royalties is possible - this is for laboratory based immunoassays whcih could possibly act as a snowball for other IVD giants to back Mixngo as well.
my assigned value for Potential Chinese IVD deal - 10 -15 cents
Now that is enough from me I will leave it to other great ADO posters to add to this thread on the endless possibilities their are for MIXNGO
EFFECTIVELY MIXNGO IS A MOLECULAR GLUE - that can stick to surfaces other things can't - taken from nature like the way a mussel sticks to a rock in the surf
Other market opportunities include :
* Another 100 plus companies currently testing Mixngo in the multi billion dollar global healthcare markets
* POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTION of the BIOSEPARATIONS MARKET - this opportunity could be worth 50 cents to a dollar or more alone to the shareprice - have a look at the recent presentation slides for just how big this market opportunity is - SEARCH SEPMAG website for details on ADO there
* POTENTIAL BLUESKY opportunities outside the medical field including-
* RESOURCES - using Mixngo as a molecular blanket to stop TOXIC LEACHING of chemicals into the soil and waterways when resources are stockpiled
* CLEANTECH - Biofuels and solar cells have been mentioned I'm presentations
That will do - way too long as promised !
Most importantly do your own research and always manage your risk when investing.
A great company in the making that is only just waking up.
Should be 20-30 cents plus on what the market already knows - just IMO
From a happy holder that has worked his way into the top 20 over a couple of year period.
ADO Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)