I research in the international education sector at a G08...

I research in the international education sector at a G08 university.
Here's my $0.02-worth on this, from inside the sector...

There are only really two ASX players that cover Australian international education: NVT and IEL (plus also RDH that owns Greenwich College, though RDH is a v small cap with low liquidity). Most of the big players in this sector are universities rather than businesses per se. So to get exposure to this industry, NVT and IEL are the only ASX options. Other education stocks (e.g. GEM, TNK) behave very differently as they're not export industries.

I think both NVT and IEL are worth buying.
And as the NVT SP has fallen today, I suggest buying in if you have some spare $$.

Here's why:
The fortunes of NVT and IEL depend entirely on international students coming to Australia. This includes new permanent residents, who get up to 510 hours of English lessons paid for by the government (i.e. the AMEP, for which NVT is still the preferred provider, though this may change) and also skilled migrants and international students proving their English proficiency thru IELTS exams (IEL). But the main game is funneling international students through education agents (IEL and NVT, but mainly IEL) into ELICOS (English language courses; often NVT, also RDH) and/or pathway and foundation courses (increasingly NVT), into universities. Together, the international education industry is worth $20bn AUD/year to the Australian economy and is the largest service export, above tourism. Most of this $20bn goes to the universities, but a sizeable chunk is left over for the university colleges (which are increasingly NVT) and the agents (of which IEL is the biggest).

This industry is booming because:
-The AUD is relatively weak against the USD. This export is consumer discretionary and very price sensitive;
-The USA and UK are becoming much less attractive for international students (Trump & Brexit factors, respectively) while Australia is offering post-study work rights and streamlined visa processing, which are very attractive sweeteners. Australia is also seen as safer than either the UK or (particularly) the USA. And the efforts of some Australian unis' Vice Chancellors to raise their unis in the international rankings are going down very well with the China market, where reputation is everything. Australia is also seen as closer and easier (e.g. more or less same time zone) compared to e.g. Canada, though Canada's international education is also doing well from these factors too;
-The Chinese economy is growing more slowly than previously, which paradoxically means more rather than fewer Chinese HE students coming to Australia. (China is Australian international education's #1 source country, making up ~80% of the HE pathways market.) This is because 1. OECD household income savings figure for China is ~38% (cf Australia 8%), and savings are very often used for international education. So consumers have already saved the money, and are not so dependent on economic growth in China to fund their kids studying overseas, 2. with China's economic slowing, finding jobs gets more competitive for uni graduates (grad unemployment in China is already ~8%, cf school leaver unemployment ~4-5%). How do you get an edge? Study overseas. 3. If you cannot get a job, what do you do? Warehousing yourself in education is one answer -- we saw this during the GFC, with international student numbers up as unemployment rose in students' home countries. Again, the cost is largely irrelevant if using savings; 4. despite constant reforms, English language education in China is still pretty ineffective, and employers complain about 'deaf and dumb English' (i.e. where graduates cannot actually communicate, even though they have passed English tests like the CET4). So studying overseas, in English, is very favourably viewed by employers, and there is thus a great hunger for getting this experience among upwardly mobile young people.
-The capacity of Chinese HE sector is still not even close to the demand, and only ~25-30% of the age group makes it to post-school education in China (cf ~60% in Australia). In response, many private HE providers have set up in China, including transnational partnerships (e.g. Uni of Nottingham at Ningbo). But these are very patchy in quality and students/employers still prefer the 'authenticity' of studying in e.g. Sydney, and the supposed English language gains, the fact of growing up, learning of critical thinking/creativity, becoming independent, making international friends, etc etc. Like the young Koreans in Australia on Working Holiday Visas (who also sometimes study English in ELICOS), a time overseas is becoming a rite of passage for young upwardly mobile Chinese too.

All these factors are good for NVT and IEL. This would change if e.g. Canada or UK were to introduce some kind of sweetener to international students, but in fact the UK is making it much harder to study there in terms of visas etc. Another thing that would cause problems is if the AUD were to rise dramatically against the CNY (unlikely for now). And if there were to be violence targeting international students (like the attacks on Indian students in Melb in 2010) that would also spell big trouble for how Australia is perceived. But in general the Australian international education industry is in a very good place right now and looks set to do well over the next 3-5 years at least. So my thinking is that NVT and IEL look like good buys. Happy researching