Why I think that if IGO bids it needs to be at least $4.00 per share., page-5

Looking back at IGO's past acquisitions and takeover bids which had the same goal (to get more nickel exposure):

1. 25 May 2015: IGO announces a mostly scrip takeover bid for Sirius Minerals at a +35% premium to last close and +46% premium to one month VWAP.




2. 5 October 2016: IGO announces a cash takeover bid for Windward Resources at a +46% premium to last close.



3. 4 November 2019: IGO announces a 100% scrip bid for Panoramic at a +42% premium to the last close and +51% premium to 1 month VWAP. This bid ultimately gets blocked by Panoramic's major shareholder and IGO withdraws its bid when Panoramic launches a large entitlement offer at $0.30 per share. WSA subsequently acquires a 19.9% position in Panoramic in May 2020 as part of an enormous $90m capital raising at $0.07 per share.

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4. 21 April 2020: IGO takes a 18.4% stake in New Century via a placement at a +19% premium to 5-day VWAP (but broadly around the last close). About a month later, NCZ announces that is in exclusive discussions with Vale regarding the acquisition of its shares in the Goro nickel and cobalt mine in New Caledonia. IGO blocks out of NCZ in September when discussions with Vale go nowhere.



Does IGO still want Panoramic? They still have an enormous amount of ground surrounding Savannah and there's nothing else really that side of the border besides Argyle, Pantoro and the old Copernicus mine. So I'd say probably.



IGO clearly think the Kimberley region is prospective for more base metals. See the deal they did with Buxton to pick up operational control over a big package of ground between Derby and Fitzroy Crossing. Buxton were looking for nickel and copper sulphides in the Kimberleys.


Will WSA sell them their blocking stake in Panoramic, which has the most advanced nickel-copper sulphide project in the Kimberleys? Probably not.

Following the Sirius acquisition, in 2016 IGO had a market cap of around 3 to 3.5x that of WSA. Now fast forward five years to today, and due to some pretty savvy deal making and trend-picking by PB IGO's market cap is now 7x that of WSA's.

Most of this gap has opened up within the last 12 months. Their share price has more then doubled since the Greenbushes acquisition and Tropicana sale whilst WSA's share price has done basically nothing in the same period. If you're IGO it's never been a better time to buy WSA.