Throughout the past 4 months since i started trading the AUD/USD I can't count the number of articles, reports & predictions were the AUD was headed, all ranging from 45c - 55c as the likely bottom.
All this kept putting me off on going long & although I have shorted the AUDUSD a couple of times (with tight stops) I have made most of my gains going long, yet the constant reports that keep coming up on how the AUD is poised to weaken just throws me of balance again.
In all of this however there was one report I read (I've tried to find it but for the life of me I can't remember where i read it) from an analyst who predicted the low of 60c & why it was headed back to 80c real soon.
So why I think the bottom was 60c:
1.The RBA intervened when it got down to 60c & I believe will do so in the future if it gets down to those levels again.
2.China will soon start to load up on resources again, ever increasing population,they need to build.
3.Throw in India into this equations.
4.Nearing a bottom in a few months starting from the DOW & working through Europe and Asia. Smart money and funds returning to the stockmarkets, abandoning US treasuries.
Remembering stockmarkets usually begin to recover 6 months ahead of time
5.Japanese to start buying back the AUD.
6.RBA to ease up on rate cuts. This could have been the last one we had.
Although I don't discount the fact AUD could still drop, for the next few months it will be wild. Tight stop on shorts, but more relaxed on going long in the 60 - 65c range with a trailing stop in place.
There's money in them there hills.
Your thoughts appreciated.
Throughout the past 4 months since i started trading the AUD/USD...
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