I think I have read every post written on FML since 2007 and supported this company not only monetarily but also by introducing friends and family to the FML story.
I have also been waiting, I would say, very patiently for the FML rocket to ignite and go ballistic, either by announcement, discovery or simply the GOLD price taking off.
My SP average would be looking very good if I hadn't fully participated in the last SPP but thems the breaks.
Every time we (FML and me) are on the verge of something great happening we always seem to be thwarted at the last hurdle (the Madam Lash effect, as described by Pinto), expectations deflate, share price drops, sentiments fall through the floor.
My whole experience with FML is like a boom bust cycle, fantastic anticipation closely followed by disappointment and despair, always leaving me thinking I should cash out and head for greener pastures but before that decision is made we are on another up trend and the excitement is back.
Looking back over the years we have the memorable moments, first production out of the GF mill, Initial profit, 3MH up and running, various excellent drilling results, the TI find, the TI drilling, steadily increasing production, CRE purchase, the CRE stabilisation, 200k per annum in very quick time and now the SD deal.
All these announcements have been interspersed with cap raisings which have tended to depress the price but without which many of these milestones would not have been achieved. This is what I see as the organic growth path but how many years has this taken, about 5 years from the Greenfields tolls treatment beginnings to now.
I don't want to wait another 5 years to see TI being mined, Barnicoat up and running, 3MH at 1.8 MPA, Coolgardie super pit coming online, Nepean Nickel being exploited, I can see a good use for some of that quarter of a billion dollars SD are offering.
The is an underlying imression that SD are investing without having a profit motive, I find this truly bizarre, they must be using a similar investment strategy that I seem to follow.
Lots of discussion revolving around the 51%, I cannot see issue with that, I have always been a minority holder, in fact I am a minority holder in every company I invest in. If the investor was Newcrest would we have the same amount of squealing on the ownership percentage.
Oh No,.... how can we be selling out to a foreign company.........well guess what, the LBJ days are over and the yellow peril is not flooding through Asia to take over Australia. Maybe BHP, Rio, Xtrata or Newmont would be more culturally acceptable to us white boys as Im sure the Yanks, Poms, Swiss or Canadians would be putting our interests first.
Oh No,.... they just want to ship all our cheap gold back to China........unfortunately the WA government will want its royalties and the gold transactions are under the scrutiny of the Mint (see http://hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1841993&msgno=8585459#top), but you never know, we may need to install gold detectors at Perth airport to stop the racket. I don't care where the Gold goes, they still have to pay market rate.
Oh No,.... they will be doing everything to get more cheap gold just to sent back to China....... I wander what would happen to our SP if we became a 500,000oz producer with millions of ozs in reserve, 2 or 3 operating Mills, the possibility of having a Nickel mine up and running (Oh No....... they might send the nickel back to China to be refined). Well hopefully the share price may reach 4cps if all that happens because "SD are not interested in the SP just the cheap Gold", give me a break......
Oh No, .....They wont pay a dividend, they will just be interested in finding more Gold (and reinvesting in the company)....I think Im starting to run into some bizarre circular argument here, refer to the point above. Im sure that FML had plans to pay a massive dividend next year (in your dreams). Maybe we need money detectors at Perth Airport as well to stop that cheap money heading back to China.
Oh No, .....SD will have total control of FML, well Stone have done such a fantastic job managing SHK (A1Minerals) that all Chinese takeovers will now be based on this model. I think I can understand the reasoning to maintain an Australian Board and Management going forward as stated numerous times by DT.
In my opinion they probably could have had the whole box and dice for about 6cps, I would have shown a minor profit for my 5 years of support and moved on. Once again FML have provided the unexpected, a massive opportunity and some anticipation of good things to come (don't you just love a good lashing every now and then).
I would like to see our board cashed up and able to target the value adds in a big way rather than on the shoestring budget we have had to endure over the last 5 or 6 years.
Quarter of a billion dollars together with the expected organic growth could provide sufficient funds to light the FML sky rocket over the next 12 months.
Initially I was a Oh No person....but It will be a Yes from me.....I like the positives in the deal, the ownership issue for me is a very minor point, Im all for an appreciating SP but the timing of any future consolidation will be critical IMHO.
FML Price at posting:
3.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)