Why IDA *fell* when it announced its US$90mm settlement with Tanzania

Here's something I feel holders of IDA might be interested to know.

Jeremy Raper, the chap behind Raper Capital, publishes a tip sheet for which his subscribers pay US$2500pa. He is an exceptionally intelligent fellow (though like all of us, he doesn't always get it right!). Generally, when Raper tips something, it jumps materially. Equally, when he says to sell, the stock drops. Some recent examples include NZM (which he tipped on 11 July, prompting so much price and volume action that NZM copped a speeding ticket which it couldn't explain) and a somewhat obscure investment tickered PAASF which he tipped on 2 July (see the consequential volume and price jump here: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAASF/history/ ).

Raper doesn't just sit on the sidelines, either - generally he tells his subscribers about his tips after he's taken a position himself. And, he seems to take pretty substantial positions. The point being, if he has bought and tipped something and then decides (and announces) it should be thrown out, that can have very material and sometimes unnaturally strong consequences.

You can probably guess where this is going.

IDA has since 3 January this year been one of his tips. And he has banged the drum about IDA several times since that initial tip.

Yesterday, shortly after the ASX's open, when IDA was trading above 9cps:
1. he labelled IDA a sell;
2. he said he was exiting his own position "today" (ie yesterday); and
3. critically, he did not put a floor price or range on his sell recommendation - he just said sell.

To me then it seems likely that he and his subscribers account for a whole lot of yesterday's sales.

Interestingly he also said this in his sell note:

"it looks to me like the gross value of the award (pre-tax but after all other costs) is something like 11.6c per share; and if we treat the residual cash likely to stay in the company post all distributions at a big (50% discount), the fair value for IDA today is something like 10.7c"

Given all this, I was buying IDA yesterday afternoon, on the back of inherent underlying value and what I consider was likely unnatural and frankly blind and indiscriminate selling.