When you're trading/investing you should always bear-in-mind that you're playing a game of probabilities... and it's only with hindsight that you'll know which are winners or losers. NUF at $11.50 is $1.50 (13%) below the $13.00 price agreed should Shinochem complete the T.O. My reckoning is:
FRIB approval: 90% chance it will be granted.
Shinochem decide to buy NUF: 70-75% chance of proceeding.
Others may have different opinions/estimations. But based on the above i am holding my NUF shares as probability of obtaining $13.00 is high.
Another way to look at it is: what other shares on ASX have 70-75% probability of rising 13% within 8 weeks?? Not too many IME.
why i'm holding onto nufarm
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Last
$4.55 |
Change
0.010(0.22%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.739B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $4.52 | $4.60 | $4.52 | $2.421M | 530.9K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 16712 | $4.55 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $4.57 | 5682 | 3 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 09/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| NUF (ASX) Chart |