A tad Cynical @Kron00. But as I noted in my post every time anyone even mentions product valuations for Imugene all and sundry from the naysayer front come to the fore, as clearly you have here. However as I have stated on numerous occasions contrarian views add to the debate at all times, and as such are often worthy of a reply.
As to your comments:
1. Are IMU developing diagnostics as well? Impressive!
It might be worth delving deeper into those numbers as the treatment market only accounts for around 50-53% depending on region. The TAM for oncology drugs is forecasted to be around $500B depending on who does the research & which countries are included. (Immunotherapy around $200b of that)
As I outlined in my post “On the down side just because the overall solid tumour market size is estimated to be worth 901 BN USD in 2029, that does not mean sales revenue shall result in that figure. However 1% of overall market share would obviously equate to that amount.” Obviously treatment only accounts for a fraction of the $9.01 billion dollars suggested in my post, as there are many other variables going toward that figure including not only diagnostics as you correctly mentioned, but healthcare infrastructure, general practice and input costs, to name a few. That said I do believe as stated later in my post the figure of $9.01 annual sales for Vaxinia is eminently achievable based upon only Vaxinia’s value proposition, given the current lack of sound treatment in this market segment. There is a huge unmet need at present in the solid tumour field.
By the way you may be unaware that Imugene has entered into a manufacturing partnership with ABL to produce Vaxinia. ABL is an Institut Mérieux Company which have among their many strings is a diagnostics arm, as is the situation with some of Paul Hoppers other enterprises. Therefore in answer to your question Imugene may well be considering or contemplating diagnostics, but I cannot clarify that today.
2. Also worth noting that Merck’s PE ratio, is determined by the revenue of approx 98 approved drugs across many industries & indications. Not specifically Keytruda.
Once again as noted my rationale for including such a p/e ratio was “Given Databridge Market Research is forecasting this market segment to grow at Calendar Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) of over 20 per cent per annum, the price to earnings ratio (PE) of the future Vaxinia owner may well be above 18 times earnings.” However whilst on the topic although Keytruda is but one Merck indication as you correctly pointed out, I would have thought that as it is one of if not Mercks most successful drugs the p/e attributable to it would be quite strong. I’m not sure if you are aware but the average p/e ratio for the 598 biotech stocks listed in the US is 34.68. I could have chosen that figure but I am time poor, and had I put that figure into the equation I perhaps would have been fielding replies all day. “How dare you compare IMU to other biotechs in the US WMHB”.
Yes it is all purely speculative, you can slice and dice the figures any way you choose to reach a designated outcome. If Vaxinia fails at the final post and does not succeed in obtaining FDA approval to manufacture and market, the value attributed to the IMU share price will be next to nothing. I hope you understand that. Were Imugene to land the .5 of the 1% market share alluded to in my previous post the value of IMU shares attributable to a potential Vaxinia sale would be closer to $4.60 per share, not $9.28 per share. If peak Vaxinia sales were estimated to be 34bn USD per annum, or double that of Keytruda, a potential Vaxinia sale could add $153 billion to the Imugene bottom line or $24.48 per IMU share.
Rest assured @Kron00 at the moment based on TV interviews with the founder of Vaxinia, Professor Yuman Fong, existing Vaxinia announcements and the excitement of US and Australian oncologists in search of a cure for their patients afflicted with solid tumours, the existing clinical trial is facing huge demand from prospective participants the world over. If this indication is anything to go by the end result with respect to the solid treatment market share apportioned to Vaxinia may result in Vaxinia first, daylight second. Oh no I wish I didn’t say that, I might be replying to cynics, doubters and naysayers for the next week.
BTW @Kron00 thanks again for taking the time to read my post and reply
DYOR - Seek investment advice as and when required - Opinions only
GLTALTH - That’s me for the week..see you on Sunday…WMHB
(20min delay)
