This is an excellent question
@arosh and one that focuses on the topic at hand as opposed to half the rubbish posted on what was once a constructive thread. Back in the
@unbelievable days that is. Give me half an hour and I shall give you my off the cuff response.
Research posts that display factual data do achieve many likes on IMU threads. The reason being there is much to like about the scientific achievements Imugene is delivering as time goes by. As many within the company have noted, from Paul Hopper and Leslie Chong down, Imugene continues to strengthen fundamentally with every new FDA IND, Clinical Trial development and subsequent Cohort (i.e., patient) clearance. Their leading candidate Vaxinia, an oncolytic virus that hunts down and kills solid tumours in cancer patients is progressing rapidly now its Phase 11 Trial into close to 100 patients both here and in the US, giving investors a sound reason to remain optimistic. Capital growth for Imugene shareholders does appear imminent. Many believe Vaxinia founder Professor Yuman Fong's visit to Australia next week may provide the catalyst for IMU to realise its full potential once signs of Vaxinia's efficacy are proven. In other words once investors know Vaxinia works. The reason capital growth shall ensue from such a realisation is that the being able to treat solid tumours within cancer patients is almost unheard of. Whilst solid tumours are far more prevalent than blood cancers, for which there are many treatments available.
So if all this is the case, if the fundamentals are improving, why has the share price imploded, or in recent times lay flat, waiting for a catalyst such as the Professor Fong visit. Well in my opinion due to a number of reasons. I shall highlight 4 reasons here:
1. When in late 2021 Imugene announced their leading B cell treatment Her Vaxx had been successful in a Phase 2 trial many believed the drug would either be sold, or partnered with a big Pharma company for a monetary sum. As Imugene Chairman Paul Hopper noted cancer vaccines are often licensed out or sold toward the end of Phase 2 studies. Neither of these outcomes eventuated and Imugene announced that rather than license out the drug or indeed sell it, they were going to proceed with further Phase 2 trial combinations with Big Pharma companies, a fact which although strengthening the potential future value of Her Vaxx, meant the eventual pay day for shareholders was going to be much further down the track than they had anticipated. As a consequence many sold and went in search of shorter term investment options, including miners, AI companies or alternate growth stocks. Similarly when Imugene announced collaborations with Celularity and Eureka Therapeutics for their innovative Oncarlytics technology, many thought their would be some compensation, license fees or money associated with the collaborations, either in 2021 or at some stage in the future. As was the case with the Her Vaxx collaborations, and the PD1 supply collaboration with Big Pharma Roche, there was no money involved, leaving investors to think Imugene was a slow boat to China, with very little prospects of income or returns in late 2021, or 2022 for that matter. As such even more investors bailed out.
Around the same time Imugene commenced a trial for their oncolytic virus CF33 and in a Science Series the trial supervisor Dr Yuan said she hoped to bring results of the trial soon. The trial utilised complex imaging technology wherein trial supervisors could monitor the viruses effectiveness visually. Unfortunately now over 18 months later investors and shareholders remain unclear as to the effect CF33 is having on patients. The virus is working as it should, according to Imugene personnel, but what does that really mean, in the mind of the lay person? Are the patients better? Have their tumours reduced in size? What is going on? Give us an answer that we can understand, they say to themselves.
The effect of Imugene's drugs on real life patients has never been something Imugene has wished to publicise. They say they have had success in treating lung cancer patients with their PD1 Vaxx, that late stage gastric cancer patients are still alive years after being dosed with their Her Vaxx vaccine, but the public has had no real life connection or description of who these patients are. Unlike Seagen and other company's I have written of in the cancer treatment space, where when visiting their websites we meet say
Julie G. living with breast cancer for example who is enjoying a good life having taken the company's drugs, who we can see and practically touch and feel, Imugene does not choose to provide the public with any details of their patient success stories. Therefore as a consequence the lay person cannot visualise the effects Imugene's drugs are having or could potentially have on the community at large. They are simply fed statistics, which are hard to comprehend at the best of times. Means and p sided differentials, or the inverse ratio of this life expectancy table or chart, its all gobbledegook to the person on the street looking to invest. They just want to know whether the drugs work, or are going to work on cancer patients, and ultimately what they are worth.
2. Imugene has had difficulty convincing people to buy their stock. In all their presentations, including those on the ASX channel this week, or small caps, or even JP Morgan, their presentations are somewhat convoluted and science orientated. Confusing scientific terms such as monoclonal antibodies, shuttling up the flag, CD 19, intravenous mono-therapy and Car T's are put simply terms the lay person, or lay investor, just does not understand. As such they switch off. Even when good news arrives on the Imugene scene, as it did last week with the progression of Vaxinia deeper into its Phase 1 Trial, the messages were mixed. Imugene CEO and Managing Director Leslie Chong at the time in an interview with Proactive Investors said the drug was displaying positive signals. That there signals are in fact significant. Case in point, yesterday when showing the video to an elderly investor I was met with the response "She didn't really say anything, what does that mean? Are the drugs actually working? Are the patients getting better?"
In short investors and shareholders alike find it difficult to comprehend the Imugene science, they simply want to know the impact their drugs are having on patients and when the drugs are either going to be licensed out, sold or partnered with a Big Pharma for an upfront fee and milestone payments down the track, as is the situation with many successful new cancer vaccines. People want to see what effect Imugene's vaccines and viruses are having on patients, with real life examples if possible and moreso when or when they are going to see returns for the drugs Imugene is developing. It's that simple, and until that message is conveyed by company management in a clear and succinct manner that is easy to understand, the company is going to continue to suffer from low trading volumes and negative criticism in my opinion.
3. Like most developing biotech stocks Imugene lives and dies when it comes to share price movements based on clinical trial results. That said in recent times the rising interest environment and adverse macro economic climate has done growth and speculative stocks such as Imugene no favours. Wars and high inflation aren't traditionally good for annualised stock returns. However in years when there is falling inflation, which we may be seeing in the near term, the S&P index in the US,( i.e., the stock benchmark many investors point to when analysing stock returns), has increased by 14% on average year on year. So there may be some light at the end of the tunnel for those seeking to see a return to growth and speculative stocks such as Imugene.
4. The final reason Imugene has not progressed as a stock is a combination of two factors. Firstly many trials that were gazetted by the company in late 2021 have not commenced yet, including their combination trials with Her Vaxx and Avelumab (i.e, Pfizer and Merck Germany) and PD1 Vaxx with Tercentriq (i.e, Roche). So in short investors are waiting.... And secondly in the existing clinical trials no comprehensive data has been released yet. In one instance when data did come to hand, that being the Overall Survival Rates for the company's Her Vaxx drug, the share price shot up, in June of 2022, as it did in 2021 when the initial PD1 Vxx Phase 1 trial results came to hand. This is not a reflection of Imugene or the company's management, it is symptomatic of the fact clinical trials take time. As an investor you require patience and tenacity, two qualities few traders on the ASX 200 either have or wish to possess.
In conclusion to my response to your worthwhile question
@arosh, although Imugene has been falling in share price for some time, it does appear to be stabilising. And irrespective of the mixed message and at times poor communication of a company focused heavily on science, there are clinical trial outcomes and results coming in the very near term. And from all accounts these results appear to be looking good. Imugene drugs, we are lead to believe are working. Imugene's patients are said to be benefiting from the company's vaccines and viruses, an outcome which promises to meet a huge unmet need out there in the medical world. One that is sure to lead to a road to riches for all Imugene shareholders willing to stay the course, of whom I do hope you are one. With creative scientific innovators soon to visit our shores and experienced personnel on hand with plenty of cash behind them, Imugene is one ship I definitely wouldn't be bailing out of in March 2023.
Best of luck to all long term holders of IMU
DYOR - Seek Investment advice as and when required - Opinions only
