Another weekly update from me.
Honestly, I was very reluctant to post. It was not a good week, so for me to re-iterate that is no good, I didn't feel like it.
But anyway, we have to face reality.
Volume wise there were no signals. The whole week we did average 20/25m shares. But sp not so good. Last two weeks, from 10 to 9.5 to 8.9. Not much to like unfortunately. But still above 8.2 the low for now.
So what will change something? Something dramatic? Or will it just be drifting till a significant news? We don't know. In my experience, when we are dealing with hope and potential, its a lot about sentiment. And I am not just talking about Health stocks. I do weekly reports across roughly 130 Lithium, Uranium and REE stocks, and the pattern is similar. Sometimes its macros, sometimes sector, sometimes general markets. But the most important thing is sentiment. Something which cannot be quantified but has huge, if not immense, affect on SP. Because when we are dealing with hope and potential, a small thing can tilt punters one way - to hold, to take risk. Its a subtle thing, but huge implications for SP.
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My gut feel - We will always want macro (general markets/health sector/risk on assets) to improve. But one thing that will make the biggest change is sentiment. A positive sentiment could do wonders.
But the question is - how do we change sentiments? I remember an episode. Around sentiment.
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My daughter was in Year 2. She came home one day and said - I am going to marry Byron. We used to sit in family room in evenings, and she was right there - in front of us, Blunt, but vey confident. I had never heard about this Byron. I had always thought this issue is for Year 12, not Year 2, or maybe even later. But I had to deal with it. Both my wife and me tried to have a stern face - a very serious one, no emotions - because any glimpse of a smile will lead to catastrophic results. I had to make my best effort to suppress that smile. So I engaged her. I asked her why she never told me about this Byron. She said this happened recently. So I thought I will venture further. I asked how do you know you like Byron? She said, she has started talking to him in Breaks. And what do you do? Oh, we go around the school, hand in hand. And what do you talk? A lot of things - family, likes, dislikes, etc. So you really like Byron? Yes, I think I love him. Matter was getting serious. So I tried my best. Why do you like Byron? Daddy, you have always said that you like sports. You told me that you like football a lot. When did you think you started liking it. Was there a particular moment? Sometimes things just happen. There does not need to be a reason for us liking or disliking something. So for me, it just happened. Suddenly, one day, I felt, I like Byron. And I want to marry him. So there you go. Sentiment can change without any particular reason. It can be sudden. Its very effective. And it can happen suddenly - you don't need a reason for that. I really believe that till we get a confirmed news, this is what is going to play. I wish it happens for most over here. Personally I am still waiting, as I mentioned, 11/12 is key for me.
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By the way, she forgot about Byron after some time. Then came Rohan, Josh, Eric, and a few more. I have lost count. Her appetite is still strong. She sometimes reads my Hot Copper posts - I am hoping she does not read this one. Otherwise I will be in trouble. But yes, that is how sentiment comes into play, a big thing, and lets hope it happens here. All the best.
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