We have seen over the past few years various comments about the manner in which we consider the various tranches of intellectual property owned by IMU might be developed.
Many of us have postulated that LC and PH do want to be involved in the development of their products at some level and will continue to be involved. Indeed the continued cooperation of research gurus at City of Hope is likely predicated on the relationship that exists between individualsunder the license terms and even a Big Pharma takeover must factor this in. The recent Azer acquisition seems to support future development involvement and visions of in-house, but query the real capability to go it alone.
So under a scenario where IMU continues and is listed on the NASDAQ , it would likely enter into a R&D collaboration deal with a large enterprise either for particular lines (most likely) or the whole box and dice. Any deal will provide for R&D facilities, production line, capacity to bring to international markets likely through Big Pharma facilities and so on. Deals could see sign on payments with key performance and payment milestones. Under that scenario IMU remains as a listed company and payments might be made to shareholders via standard and special dividends above a baseline for example.
But somehow all the planning is likely to be undone by a takeover whether it be friendly or hostile. It seems more likely that at some point action will occur but it’s a matter of when. A number of factors come into consideration one of the most important being the offering company having comfort that they will attract a voting block. The Mann group is currently a substantial shareholder for example but we might see some other movement sooner than later. The offer that is made needs confidence that blocks will follow. There is a large retail holding which is less predictable but will most likely follow the Board’s recommendation and we are unlikely to have much influence as blocks carry the day.
The IMU board will need to make a recommendation if the offer is in the best interests of the shareholders. This is where a monetisation strategy that IMU may want to adopt to advance the treatments will be part of their takeover defence if the Board is unhappy with what is put on the table. Such an independent experts report is still required to assess pros and cons if the Board supports a takeover so the shareholders do get to vote it. That’s where the shareholders can defeat it, if the plan for IMU shows greater promise and potential than the money on the table from an offeror. They will be interesting times.
Good luck to an unfriendly takeover offeror as the key shareholders who carry the day in addition to we masses may see that the potential future yield will outstrip an immediate takeover reward. While we watch incremental developments a master plan is probably already being mapped out by someone. Question is who and when?
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